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Re: DeepDive post# 133

Wednesday, 06/22/2022 8:56:06 AM

Wednesday, June 22, 2022 8:56:06 AM

Post# of 145
Yes I appreciated your analysis in those days. It certainly buttressed my own due diligence and buying enthusiasm. The project is now significantly de-risked with rapid expansion plans and increased guidance suggesting growing demand and a rapidly expanding farmer customer base, at over 5000 at last count. The big question is global potash availability and commodity pricing strength since kforte and baks are still tethered to the underlying commodity price. For now it appears Belarus is unable to export anywhere close to pre sanction levels enabling an unprecedented supply disruption, so Verde is enjoying far stronger net profits. The situation is in major flux, however, as all producers are incentivized to get every ton to market at these elevated prices so we will have to see if Nutriens recently announced expansion plans are because they’re reading the global market equilibrium correctly or if it’s a contrarian call on commodity market top. With Verde’s PFS using $368 US as the baseline that number will be crucial for investors to watch if indeed the air quickly comes out of the global potash market.
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