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Re: None

Wednesday, 06/01/2022 1:58:15 PM

Wednesday, June 01, 2022 1:58:15 PM

Post# of 3193
What_if Argentina_starts selling_2025 futures_$53,000/mt lithium_for $40,000/mt_today?
https://miningpress-com.translate.goog/nota/347687/argentina-fijo-precios-testigo-para-el-litio-la-resolucion?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Is it possible that Argentina/IMF will/can next get all their lithium miners to pledge their 2025 forward lithium production to the State at a discounted but fixed $43,000/mt for 10 years and the State then is responsible for selling all the lithium to be mined hopefully at the pre-agreed benchmark $53,000/mt (or more) 2025 through 2035 carefully peeling off their pre-determined tax/royalty as they go along and scooping up any windfall price per tonne appreciation that may occur? Of course in down times (eg $25,000/mt times) the privateer miners are still selling their output at $43,000/mt to the State if the State can indeed stockpile the temporarily unsold lithium product thus nicely leveling out the miner's cash flows.

In this scenario, Argentina could then easily start selling futures/options on that "known/coming" $53,000/mt lithium to battery makers at discount for $40,000/mt in 2022, $45,000/mt in 2023, $50,000/mt in 2024 and then the peak of $53,000/mt January 2025 through 2035. But then a niggling question could enter the equation... would the Argentinian leftists excessively rob Peter (ie Futures) to pay Paul (ie IMF) off early in the the "lead up period" 2023 through 2025? Maybe... but I think not given Argentina's previous lessons learned.

Hmmm, but to make this scenario work as a low risk strategic program, Argentina/IMF would most likely need Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and perhaps even Mexico to agree to also implement a fixed $53,000/mt benchmark in January 2025 for ten years rolling forward thereby short-circuiting the free-market in unison and making whatever LME says on market price basically moot. It would be doubtful that the more-costly-to-mine Australian lithium will be selling for less than $53,000/mt in January 2025 so this 5-way South American alliance would not feel any competitive pricing heat from the ozzies.

Is such a thing even possible in situation where all 4 countries will be run by leftists through 2026 as Lula will surely win Brazil in the next Brazilian presidential election?

Is this our future? I wonder. Do you wonder also?

And is it possible that the IMF had talks with Goldman Sachs recently and said, "Psst, listen Goldie, let's fock all the lithium miners with some made up doom & gloom bullshit story just after Memorial Day 2022 and then quietly buy up their depressed shares ASAP when they collapse for a real killing while we two then control the entire burgeoning lithium industry from our brand new ultra-luxury offices in Buenos Aires where the chicks are heterosexual (unlike Chile), are super caliente hot and party-party all night"?

The Doctor