I just pulled this off the discord board. A couple of medical practitioners assessment of the NIH trial's futility status. Great "Food for Thought". Maybe something positive will come out of that trial after all.
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Ron100 — Today at 7:39 AM
My Hypothesis: So scientifically, the effect of Aviptadil needs to be observed only in the first week (acute phase), which is the most critical for saving the patient's life. Thereafter, other factors become dominant in deciding the patient's condition. The immediate improvement in oxygen saturation is clear proof of this.
Importantly, the study was stopped due to a secondary 90-day endpoint. Now the primary endpoint, Ordinal Scale of Recovery, can be analyzed. All of these factors, including lung function in the first few days, etc., are all secondary endpoints that are now also being analyzed. It is possible that the NIH study shows exactly the same result as the Indian trial.
But since we no longer have an origin Covid with Omrikon, the pure ARDS arm of the study has been closed, while remdesivir naturally has a broader radius of action. In short, there was no need to follow up Aviptadil past 90 days to monitor Covid only. It prevents the NIH from disclosing and analyzing the data that should be ready for next fall to respond to the next wave. It was therefore the logical conclusion to close the Aviptadil arm so that the data would be available for analysis!
Medicine needs good ARDS drugs and the NIH will be looking at this closely. Some might still be in for a surprise here...
[Source Dr. from the investor team]
Patdude Pitbull Pat — Today at 7:45 AM
That's exactly what I've been saying it ain't over
schroeti — Today at 7:52 AM
The primary endpoint (90 day 6-category ordinal score) was not supportive (OR 1.10; 0.79 – 1.54; p=0.56), and 90-day mortality secondary endpoint was also not supportive with 37% mortality in the aviptadil group vs 36% in the placebo group; HR 1.04 (0.77-1.41); p=0.79.
Where do you see that primary endpoint wasn’t analyzed @Ron100 ? ??
