From another board I won't name so I don't get banned :)
So tomorrow we should (hopefully) get updates on a lot of things. I don't expect anything earth shocking (but they tend to some how happen to announce news the day of calls both good and bad).
Here are some things I am looking forward to being updated in the PR or the call
1-191 status and time table and hopefully design of trial.
a. I then the market expects that 191 is in Phase 1A doubt if we'll here anything about side-effects/safety etc. At best an "in general" type of response.
b. The dosing (amount and intervals being examined).
c. As far as time table I think Phase 1B data in Q3 will be announced.
2-Pirfenidone
a. I am hoping we get a formal wording of trial enrollment ahead of expectations Q2/Q3 completion. Actually I hope it is end of Q1 but I don't think they would say that even if it is. I guess my aggressive enrollment expectation may be off.
b. Maybe we can get some comment on "general conduct of the trial". Dan Welch has in the past made a general conduct of trial comment on the INSPIRE trial so perhaps he'll do one hear or they will PR a comment.
c. The big one (for me) hopefully someone will ask it. What are the thoughts on partnering outside of US, given the good top-line Shionogi results? It is conceivable the company takes advantages and announces a partnership deal (but I highly doubt it) and at the other extreme (which I'd love to hear) the company could say something to the effect of "given the added funding with the Roche collaboration, our stronger financial picture, the rapid and advanced nature of the CAPACITY trials and most importantly the exceptional results Shionogi had in their Phase 3 we have elected to pursue developing Pirfenidone on our own in Europe. We believe with a small infrastructure and a modest sales force this presents a significant revenue opportunity in the not to distant future. We have seen Genzyme, Actelion and other companies develop therapies for rare diseases with modest invest and achieve highly profitable returns in a short period and are excited at the potential for Pirfenidone to do the same. Having said that should someone overwhelm us with an offer to market it in Europe we would certainly listen" (OK, OK, I can be somewhat of an optimist can't I?)
3-Actimmune
a. I don't really expect much if anything to be said new here. Other then sales which I would guess at 22 million for the quarter. Maybe a "general conduct of the trial" update.
4-Early Stage pipeline
a. While it is possible, I think it unlikely that InterMune reveal the nature of their preclinical targets.
5-Financials
a. We should get a very vague revenue number for Actimmune for '07. If I were to guess I would say 60 - 90 million.
b. We should get forecasts for R&D, G&A and general financial picture.
c. What I am hoping is someone pins down the company on the shelf and their plans. Specifically I'd like to know if they can retire any of the existing convertible at a discount to current share price, and if they plan to do so. I'd also be interested if this means they are looking to do a deal more near term or as mentioned earlier pursue Pirfenidone development in Europe alone, etc.
