IMHO, there is value in looking at related companies. That's why I still follow MNK, our sole competitor for CORTI. Let's switch to OGN, the women's health care spin-off from MRK that I recommended a while ago. The stock has held up very well, paying more than a 3% dividend and prepaying $100M of debt to MRK which it assumed in the spin-off.
So what's the ANIP connection? When you parse through the postings on this Board, there is a subliminal, if not direct, hope from most of us that ABBV will acquire ANIP. As we know, ABBV is pretty desperate to replace Humira, its blockbuster that goes off patent soon. ABBV needs revenue, and CORTI (with ANIP) fits in 100% for that model. So does MNK fit for ABBV with its Acthar, but let's hope not, although it's naive not to think ABBV is considering purchase of any revenue source.
OGN connection? A big push from them in 2023 will be a Humira Biosimilar. They won't be the only ones to pressure ABBV margins.
So -- you can speculate. OGN (women's health care, Humira biosimilar, maybe Libigel for the OGN mission for women), ABBV (losing Humira patent exclusivity, needing repalcement revenue, maybe Libigel but definitely CORTI, either from ANIP or MNK).
In the Ouija board of speculation, a lot of the pieces fit. Definitely for OGN (if you are a widow or orphan), probably for ANIP (if you can handle the stress). ABBV has the cash to do something, probably overpriced, but one of these other two will benefit.
