NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

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Can Nvidia Bounce Back
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | May 19, 2022

Shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) slipped more than 6.8% on Wednesday, to a value of $169.38, during what turned out to be a rather inexorable day on the trading floor. Indeed, every index suffered overall losses with the NASDAQ closing down more than 5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 each fell 4.04% and 3.57%, respectively. The Dow finished the day at 3,923.68 while the S&P finished at 31,490.07. Trading volume on the day held at 54.1M, which is still 2.4 million below the 56.5 million 50-day average volume.

Shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) slipped more than 6.8% on Wednesday, to a value of $169.38, during what turned out to be a rather inexorable day on the trading floor. Indeed, every index suffered overall losses with the NASDAQ closing down more than 5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 each fell 4.04% and 3.57%, respectively. The Dow finished the day at 3,923.68 while the S&P finished at 31,490.07. Trading volume on the day held at 54.1M, which is still 2.4 million below the 56.5 million 50-day average volume.

NVIDIA Underperforms Even Against Competitors

The decline of NVDA stock was among the worst performer in the NASDAQ index. Competitors like Microsoft (MSFT), Intel Corp (INTC), and Texas Instruments (TXN) were all down at the end of the day. Texas Instruments had the smallest drop, of nearly 2.7% to $170.30 while Microsoft saw a 4.55% drop to $254.08. Finally, Intel Corp fell more than 4.6% to $42.35.

For Nvidia Corp, though, the day was not a satisfying one. As such, on Wednesday NVDA closed $177.09 below its 52-week high of $346.47 (reached on November 22, 2021). Accordingly, Nvidia shares have slipped as much as 50% from its record high share price of $346, from last year. Currently, the Nvidia share price has a value of $177.

Why Nvidia is Struggling

Nvidia is probably most commonly known as a manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPUs) that make PC video gaming possible. Unfortunately, a decline in prices for these products could present a near-term risk to one of Nvidia's biggest revenue sources. As a matter of fact, gaming remains the largest segment for the company. Last year, alone, Nvidia's gaming revenue grew by 61% year-over-year, to $12.4 billion.

But while the overall growth in this segment is excellent, declining sale prices could put a damper on things. During the pandemic, a microchip shortage shot selling prices for items like upgraded GPUs through the roof. Indeed, prices for both Nvidia's GeForce RTX 30 series and also the Radeon RX 6000 series from Advanced Micro Devices had been on an upward trend throughout all of last year. Since the start of 2022, however, GPU prices started to drop.

In addition to this, two major global events have created major obstacles for various industries and including chip makers like Nvidia. For example, China's largest chipmaker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co (SMIC) has warned of a massive drop in both smartphones and personal computers. Primarily, SMIC CEO Zhao Haijun notes that COVID lockdowns across China and also the Russian invasion of Ukraine have destroyed demand for approximately 200 million smartphone units.

While SMIC and Nvidia are two separate companies (operating in two different countries), SMIC's struggles could easily spell out an equally difficult fate for Nvidia. Indeed, there is a chance that SMIC could be just a microcosm in China for what could become a much larger complication in the global market.

This Cloud Has a Silver Lining

Finally, some analysts have noted that Nvidia stock is trading at a somewhat attractive price-to-earnings ratio of 31.5. More importantly, perhaps, some analysts also expect Nvidia to grow its earnings at a 30% compound annual rate across the next half a decade.

On top of this, the market anticipates that Nvidia will deliver a YOY increase in earnings on notably higher revenues when it releases its Q1 2022 earnings report. With the first quarter ending in April, Nvidia is expected to release its new earnings report on May 25, 2022. If the key numbers in the report are better than analysts expected, the stock could see a bump in value. Of course, that also means the stock could slip even further if the numbers fail to meet expectations.

That said, analysts do expect the gaming and artificial intelligence graphics chip maker will post quarterly earnings upwards of $1.30 per share in that coming report. This incline represents a positive YOY change of 41.3%. Similarly, revenue is expected to reach $8.12 billion, which would be a YOY increase of 43.4% on the quarter.

All this in mind, analysts are a bit cautious about Nvidia stock for the time being. For those who may be interested in acquiring a few shares, it may be best to wait til the end of the month, after the release of their earnings report, to be certain it will move favorably towards the end of the year.

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