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Update: 1970 Redux vs. 1962 & 1974?
By: Almanac Trader | May 10, 2022



Last week I illustrated how eerily close 2022 is tracking 1970. This disturbing comparison is not abating. Two other comparable bear market years have also come to light. 1962 and 1974: both midterm years with similar chart patterns.

1962 had the Cold War machinations and the Cuban Missile Crisis, but rates, inflation and oil prices were nothing like 2022. 1974 on the other hand had it all. Q1 GDP was negative, inflation surged, Oil Crisis and war in the Mideast.

1960 was removed since it held the March low until September and was an election year. We also looked at 1969 and 1994 which have some similarities and have been bandied about over the transom. But 1969 was not down in April and flat the first four months. Though 1994 was a midterm year it was flat not down like 2022 with a low in March.

We still expect a classic midterm bottom over the next several months. Where it bottoms is anyone’s guess. We have ours. But we are reminded of an old sign we used to have in the office about picking downside targets. It said one thing, don’t do it.

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