KIK, good post
That whole scenario gives even more reason as to why the stock market will likely go into bear on all indexes, and stay there for years. The next recession, which I feel will start over the next 9 months, will be one of the worst we've seen in the last 100 years. I believe all indexes go down 70%+. If stagflation become the rule of the 2020s(as it was in the 1970s), then interest rates will likely go much higher yet. I am temped to go into a 5 year treasury now, but am waiting for at least 3.5%.