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Re: gfp927z post# 744

Saturday, 05/07/2022 9:21:44 AM

Saturday, May 07, 2022 9:21:44 AM

Post# of 2589
gfp: I have to add my 2 cents, as usual. You need more inflation protection than bonds. Real inflation is at least 15%, and the producer price index is even higher which is a hrbinger of a higher CPI in a few months. The Fed's response is anemic at best. They aren't going to stop inflation with a cost of money that is 1/5 or 1/6 of the inflation rate. I understand being in survival mode. But increase your energy and gold/silver mining exposure to at least 15% each and don't fret the day to day gyrations. While it is true that the miners have done virtually nothing for 18 months the flip side is that they have maintained themselves fairly well in the face of the Dollar Index (DXY) being at a 20 year high (due the the tremendous weakness in the Yen and significant weakness in the Euro and Pound.) So buy into one or two precious metal mining ETFs. SIL is the bigger silver miners, it's bottoming out here and has yield > 2%. GDXJ is the mid sized gold miners. It's slightly more volatile but has tremendous upside from current levels, and you get a 1.85% dividend while you wait for capital appreciation.

Also, buy some energy plays like XLE and AMLP and perhaps a single blue chip issue like XOM that pays a 3.9% Dividend yield. With turmoil around the world, from the Ukraine to Taiwan, energy is not going to get cheaper.

These plays are not going to make you or I rich. But my goal has been to preserve the purchasing power of my invested money over time. I believe my hard asset dominated portfolio is going to do that for me. I know that I'm a far bigger risk taker than you are. But putting 15% into both precious metals and energy are not excessively risky moves at current prices considering the macro economic and geo-political storms we are trying to survive. Sitting out in T-Bills and Cash at current interest rate yields just means you are guaranteed to lose probably 30% of your purchasing power over the next two years, if not worse if the Dollar really starts to collapse (which is a distinct possibility.)

Adding a little agriculture commodity and industrial metal exposure by adding 5% positions in RJI and RJA would also be prudent. And some exposure to URA, LIT, and REMX would not be a bad idea.

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