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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 30, 2022

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 10469 and is trading up about 39% for the year from last year's settlement of 7521. Up to now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 9293 while it is still trading above last month's close of 10028 implying near-term strength.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2022. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 10447 and overhead resistance forming above at 10542. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 7th at 13050, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 29th. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 12.74% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of April 18th reaching 10920 failed to exceed the previous high of 13050 made back during the week of March 7th. That rally amounted to only one week. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 9381. Additional support is to be found at 9341. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2020 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in November 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 6700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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