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Netflix Q1 net adds may be closer to 3.5M, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft maintained his Q1 global subscriber estimate, in line with Netflix's 2.5M guidance, though he believes net adds may be closer to 3.5M when not accounting for a 1M base adjustment for Russia. The analyst's analysis of Sensor Tower data shows mobile device app downloads to be nearly flat year-over-year and down 6% quarter-over-quarter, indicative of a continued decline in gross adds both annually and sequentially. This usually comes with a decrease in net adds, but given the "tumultuousness coming out of COVID and increasing competition, it is hard to predict how correlated net adds will be this quarter," Kraft tells investors in a research note. He keeps a Hold rating on Netflix shares.