Sunday, April 17, 2022 11:16:49 AM
A $1 billion market cap is probably where the share price will immediately go if lenz hits stat sig on the primary endpoint in the ACTIV trial. It will be difficult for the FDA to deny the EUA to lenz after it has hit stat sig on its primary endpoint in both of its trials. But if stat sig is hit on mortality, the sky is the limit for share price. And stat sig on mortality is a definite possibility. The patient population for the ACTIV trial is patients with CRP<150mg/L and <85yo. The 336 patients who had CRP<150mg/L and <85yo in the LIVE-AIR trial had stat sig on mortality with 6.6% mortality in the lenzilumab arm and 13.8% mortality in the placebo arm. That is bonkers efficacy on mortality. In other words, stat sig on mortality is a strong possibility or even likely in the ACTIV trial.
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