Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK)

[thermo]

I've heard from docs that faricimab is quite good and they expect to transition many of their patients currently on Eylea to faricimab.

So, Eylea will be pressured by faricimab and biosimilars. Pricing will come down. Biosimilars will price at 60% - 70% of Eylea, or around $1000 or perhaps $800.

But the need for cost control in healthcare isn't going away (e.g. the use of step edit protocols). The regulations that will cause doctors to stop prescribing an off-label drug when a comparable on-label is available isn't going away. These are the key realities behind my OTLK forecast.

I ask myself, what's my margin of safety with OTLK? How wrong can I be on my forecast and still be right on the stock? I find that to be, still, a very wide margin.