Monday, February 28, 2022 1:22:48 PM
We are getting a serious case of Deja vu with recent cannabis sector performance. For the third time in less than two years, cannabis stocks have outperformed the market on the news of a cannabis bill being filed in Congress, only to decline as the bill moves through the political process.
It is looking likely once again that cannabis stocks won't enter a bull market unless 1 of two things happen:
New institutional investors enter the market, with the blessing of compliance departments.
A law change in Washington. Either a loosening of banking restrictions or outright legalization.
Until one of the above catalysts happens, the recent sector outperformance may turn out to be transitory.
As a reminder our current expectation is that the COMPETES act (with SAFE banking attached) will be dead on arrival. Senator Schumer is planning to introduce a competing national legalization bill in April, making it unlikely in our view he would vote through a more narrow banking bill first. Schumer wants all the glory for himself.
Schumer's bill is on a tight timeline heading into midterm elections and is the industry's best hope for regulatory change.
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