PCT Ltd (PCTL)

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Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 7%, to $103.66 a barrel, its first time above $100 since 2014.

Oil analysts had already been predicting that oil prices would stay strong, with or without a Russian invasion. The invasion makes it even more likely that prices will keep rising. OPEC has so far shown little appetite for increasing production and other producers have been slow to ramp up production. Absent a recession, supply shortages should keep oil prices high for a sustained period.

Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, previously forecast that crude would rise to $125 a barrel if a multi-front invasion forced Europe and the U.S. to impose broad sanctions. Other analysts have written about how prices could rise to $150. One factor that could cause prices to dip would be if the U.S. and Iran agree on a nuclear deal that would result in the U.S. and Europe removing sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

“Crude prices will likely rise until significant alternative supplies become available (e.g. Iran following a nuclear compromise, or more U.S. shale oil),” wrote analysts at the consulting firm Eurasia Group. “This will take time. The longer it takes to unlock new sources of oil for the market, the further crude prices could rise—to as high as $150 per barrel.”