FuelCell Energy Inc (FCEL)

[jbsliverer]

I ask you this: do you believe the implication that % gains or losses over a short period of time is a measure of the direction of the stock in coming days???

Sorry for such a long response (no one has to read it), and I understand what you're saying, but wanted to clarify where I was coming from.

Simple answer, no, but that's just another way of saying "Past Performance Is No Indicator of Future Performance" which is stated in one way or another everywhere and is actually required by the SEC in many instances in the Wall Street arena for good reason (and ignored by way too many for all the wrong reasons). That's in effect with multiple time spans, just different degrees.

A more complex answer is if you're talking days, then it is just talking day or very short term trading on the techs and not longer term investing in the viability or fundamental strength, stability, and profitability of FCEL. If your talking those things (which I was under the impression you were), then you would have to look at reasons for the last change in direction of pps.

Did FCEL fundamentally change anywhere, no it didn't. The same stories, the same fundamentals, or the lack of them in this case didn't. No new stories or even any great amount of new believers in the old stories that could/would put real $ into it.

It did not give more reason to invest longer term, believe more in the company, or even get hopes up. Nor did it indicate that one's longer term investment would increase in value enough to reach any goals or even keep up with inflation (real world $s), or be better than many other stock investments.

Let alone double, triple, or more in value to get back the money that traders like me made off others emotional attachments to the stock, visions of imaginary $, or the belief that short term gains/losses in technical trading has much to do with long term viability of the company.

It was/is just short term trading action based on the techs indication manipulating hopes on there MAY be trend reversal and/or hopes Earnings MAY be something more bullish that previously we've not seen. But it doesn't confirm yet that the long term trend has changed, and matched with the current environment that we're in, FCEL is going to have tough time and may see that Fri was the extent of the little run and just reverse down again in the near term or just roll around on the bottom for while.

Either way, FCEL has got quite a few resistances to get through in any long term trend reversal. Great for trading, not so much for investing long term. There's a lot of better long term investing out there that have got a lot better DD and stability with them, and even ones with better stories and followers (ie: sentiment).

I hope it does trend back up. One of my habits of managing risk for me is that for the most part, I don't trade stocks under $5 (short or long). Whenever I've strayed from that, I have found the risks increase greatly above my tastes and that I incurr more losses in my trading. I've paid out a lot for those lessons. FCEL has been a great trading stock with trading the trend down, but I wouldn't mind at all trading it up if it ever happens. I hate to see it go, but I'll have to stay with my rules.

But anyway, I don't think your example is wrong necessarily, just wrong for your point your trying to make IMO. It's more of a argument for investing more money into something to get more $ return (got to spend money to make money, different issues).

In your example one has to spend or put out more cash to receive the larger $ return, but less % profit on original investment. If everything is equal (which they never will be in the real world of real money), your advocating in just putting more money into the lower price stock to get even better return in $ than the higher price stock. Of course that eludes from the qualities and risks differences of the two.

The mind set should always be based on real $ which is a finite amount that should be based on a % of total money held or whole portfolio worth for each individual investment (ie: don't put all your eggs in one basket) The decisions to be made are WHERE do you put that finite $ that one has to invest for the best % return for the least risk.

Since the days of no fee trading on most listed stocks, one has to only look at the quality and risks. Once one has decided on an amount of $ to risk, then decide on which investment is the best choice.

Say if $100 was all one wanted to risk on any one stock and you were looking at two stocks, one $1 pps and another was $20, you would either buy 100 shares of one or 5 of the other, or even $100 pps stock is in the mix then one would only buy 1 share. The amount to risk or invest doesn't change, only the % of return or loss changes and hopefully the right decision was made.

That basically was my issues with comparing the number of shares instead of the amount of $. Real world accounting goes on the $ amount of worth and % of that amount for gains/losses. Doesn't matter how many widgets there are, only the amount they are worth goes to and from the bank and pays the bills. Or not if you've lost all your money, but you've got a lot worthless widgets in a big bag that only a few want (at discounted rates) at only specific short term intermittent times.

Agreed that short term price action is not the DD one needs to pay attention to for long term thinking. Even short term trading, one should pay attention to longer term trends, technicals, and sentiment, etc.

So if one is trading this daily, some would be looking at the last few days for indications of the next few days. Friday and the last indications of the week deserves caution if thinking that last week was a true trend reversal (it isn't yet) for FCEL or thinking because of it the company miraculously improved fundamentally. That would be a big error.

Big chance that traders will be taking profits from the little run, especially if there's another red day. I'm sure many already are out as of last Fri, I am of course, but for reasons given before. So no skin in the game for me at this point.

Investors currently are putting more money in safer places, taking out from the more riskier areas, or hedging bets for a down trend in the overall market. Stocks like FCEL are in the riskier area category. All should be taken in consideration.