Friday, February 04, 2022 6:10:38 PM
From their presentation, it shows the market for 2nd line HER2 exon 20 is about 3208 patients. At $200,000/yr that's ~$642M, say they are on therapy for 6 months which cuts the market to $321M and say they get 75% of the patients or more since it looks like it will first in the market for Her2 which gives you $241M, multiply revenue by 5 and that gives you over 1B compared to a MC of 115M now. Remember it's a back of the envelope calculation. All I can tell you is that at this price I believe SPPI is a gimmie.
Edit- And regarding all this we'll know a little more about pozi next week and whether the FDA will accept the NDA for review, I think Feb 7th is around the 2m decision point.
I assume the hedge funds are keeping it down because they smell a financing is needed. SPPI is doing their darndest to not let that happen. For example, for the last couple of CCs w Wall Street they didn't have it posted to listen to on their web site which they always did and I was musing they probably have to pay to do that. All I know is if NWBO does what I expect it to do I'll probably sell a bunch to buy SPPI.
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