Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[patentlawmeister]

Zeev - thanks for the quick analysis. You are quite right about BB stocks, you need to do a lot of DD before diving in; you need to look at balance sheet issues, and you need to consider whether a particular good quarter is merely a fluke or the beginning of a trend. Since i have a full time job in the patent field, i don't have 24 hrs. per day to look for undiscovered gems; i've been relying on posters i've found reliable over the years to do the initial DD; i then make my decisions after looking at each situation.

Of these recent picks i mentioned today, many were initially discovered by an ex-banker who posts on RB (his handle is "Bobwins"). For instance, if you look at his analysis on MDPA (on the non-cheerleading posts) you'll see that practically every i is dotted and every t crossed.

Just a quick comment on your take on EYDY (Eye Dynamics) and CREB (Champion Parts). WIth EYDY, i'll admit the press releases are not totally professional at this point (any comments on stock price i believe are not warranted) ... but if you look at the annual data on Yahoo and compare this year's results:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=EYDY.OB&annual


you'll see their sales went, from 2000 to 2002, from 780K, 698K, 1.8M and now this year's first nine months are 2.44M, with 1.1M in the last quarter alone (ending 9/30). If they sell another 1.1M in the current quarter that'll be 3.5M on the year, which is around +95% from 2002. YTD profit in 2003, first 9 months alone, is 662K or .03 per share (with .02 of that in the q ending 9/30 alone). So i do believe we have a current situation with 100% yearly sales growth and a p/e of 10. That's about where MED was at when it was trading at 1.00 last year.

As for CREB (Champion Parts), this co. traditionally focused on carbauretors, but last year ventured into air conditioning which has thus far proven a smart move. Eps was .17 in the last quarter, .25 for the last 6 months and the stock is trading at 1.35. Projection is eps of .40 to .45 on a yearly basis.

Finally, in terms of risk, i feel the risk of owning a stock like AKAM or SONS, with billion dollar valuations and losses or minimal earnings, negative book value in some cases - is far higher than spreading your money around among profitable microcaps that may very well continue along their profitable paths (like MED did); or they may falter. And consider a company like Lucent - wow they're no longer losing money but after losing billions over the last few years do they deserve a valuation of $14B now? Hell no! Or a company like FARO, going to the moon just because they had two or three good quarters. In this kind of environment i'll stick with a basket of unknown microcaps, which are sure to become known eventually at much higher stock prices provided they don't screw up.