Biotech Values

[ghmm]

I follow United pretty closely and so REX indirectly (I have a small position). If you follow REX for things other then OvaRex I can't help you too much as far as talking about OvaRex I would be interested in discussing the merits (even hearings PGS arguments against it).

As far as royalties go:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_V/threadview?m=tm&bn=26969&tid=...
... basically 7% < 500M, 8% to 1B and 9% over 1B. Note also that UTHR does not have world wide rights...

As far as merits of IMPACT trials reaching success. I've come to the conclusion its a toss up :) (so I am still on the fence). My dilema is basically the data (from the Analyst Data) would suggest a mean well above 20 months so if Placebo comes in around 11 months (heck even 15 months) then I think BOTH trials succeed. The problems (I have) are the following:
1-Phase 2B was powered for a much higher TTR then was observed and from what I can tell other trials have reported (but its hard to know the exact patient populations). This one scares me the most.
2-Very small subset made up the SFLT group in the Phase 2b study which is the basis for the IMPACT trials.
3-ViRexx in their PR says about the success of MAB's when they reach Phase 3 (citing a Journal of Nature article I believe) however I believe the same article notes that murine have very poor success (I believe Zevilin is a murine MAB).
4-A paper by MarkMan published early last year I believe reports the correlation between CA-125 level and TTR that would seem to give some explanation for the improved results in what comprises SFLT subset. However the trials referenced have additional therapy so it isn't clear how much benefit patients receive from the other therapy.

Anyway I am long United for the Remodulin franchise. I would think United is a better way to play OvaRex given (minimal) royalties REX gets and it will be some time until meaningful revenue come ViRexx's way but what do I know REX certainly could have much more speculative increase on success in IMPACT trials. I just don't expect them to see meaningful revenue anytime soon unless the deal they did fell through and they still have the EU (and other) territories to license.

Saw this posted (I don't agree with everything but it sounds competent)

http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=14113197&t=0&all=0&TableID=0

Would be interested in any other opinions on OvaRex.

Regards


PS
Sorry for any typos grammar mistakes not my strength and more evident longer I write.