Lithium Americas Corp (LAAC)

[jbsliverer]

This article was from last month and the author really does presume a lot, but not entirely out of the realm for LAC, but a couple of yrs in the future IMO. I didn't think too much about it when I read and saved it, but recently there was other statements from a news sources on my EV watch list which includes F(own), GM and TM which is stating how TM had their stock of chips already procured before the chip shortage allowing them to overtake sales above GM for first time. The other auto makers are now forming their own supply lines away from foreign supply including their own lithium battery supply. These continued efforts are giving support for a LAC battery production that this article talks about.


Lithium Americas: Electric Battery Ambitions
Dec. 20, 2021 5:47 PM ET
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476115-lithium-americas-electric-battery-ambitions
Summary
We summarize why the market has dropped & if this presents an opportunity for the long-term lithium investor.
The Biden Administration's EV support is covered along with a battery push.
Lithium Americas battery plant ambitions are revisited.
Batteries and electric vehicles on a blackboard
Yagi Studio/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Before we get into this article let's look at why the market is a mess. Then we can speculate on Lithium Americas and why I think they will build a battery plant in Nevada.

Messy Market = Opportunity
Emotions often dictate short-term investing and how we respond. If I were to say that Stock X is up 100% from where you bought it, you would respond with joy. If I were to say it is down 25%, you would not be thrilled. If the company is progressing forward and the sector is progressing forward then we need to look past short-term jitters of emotional investors. We need to focus on the long-term situational logic.

I've got a friend who texts me often when the market shows any jitters. It reminds me of the character "Tweak" from "South Park". The truth is the market is going to shake; it will pop up and down; it will get messy. Messy creates opportunities (usually). Take, for example, the decimation of Standard Lithium (SLI) last month over a fake short seller report. This created opportunity. The recent lithium sector downtrend creates additional opportunity.

Looking at Lithium Americas (LAC), Standard Lithium, and Cypress Development (OTCQB:CYDVF), I can't help but nibble and add to my position at what looks like discount pricing. Could things continue to go south? In the short term, absolutely. Long term though, lithium demand continues to grow on the commercial side and on the government side.

In this article we will explore what has pushed lithium down in the short term. Then we will explore the long-term demand by auto makers and the government. Lithium Americas battery plant ambitions will also be revisited.

Short-Term Market Jitters
We are having a Blue Light Special on lithium on aisle #2. The market has been selling off a few names: Cypress Development, Standard Lithium, Lithium Americas and other lithium stocks are in the red and have been on a down trend. The reasons for this are:

1. Momentum traders selling off to move elsewhere. After a massive run north in price, the trend has stopped and the momentum traders exit to lock in profits.

2. End of year window dressing to lock in profits and bonuses.

3. Locking in tax losses to offset profits for some people. This is most likely the largest contributor to the drop. Frankly, people are looking at what they own and selling off things at a loss to lock in tax credits. I know because I have sold off another stock to do just this and so are my friends.

4. A fake short seller report against SLI bled into Cypress, as both use related DLE technology to extract lithium. At the same time, Lithium Americas announced new financing. This put a damper on lithium.

5. Warrants were executed against Cypress Development and then some were most likely sold into the market. This puts downward pressure on the stock in the short term.

6. The Omicron nothing burger surfaced and went nowhere.

7. Federal Reserve Corporation Powell spread fear via inflation talk and tapering.

With all of the above, I have gazed into my blue crystal ball and it hints that January will be better after the tax loss selling is over. The story for lithium has not changed for the worse. In fact, it has improved via government cogs that are spinning and private industry plans via Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).

The Government Wants Lithium
Looking past the trendy word crafting, we can see the Biden administration is behind lithium much like the Trump administration was. Looking at the December 13th, 2021 statement we see the following highlights:

1. "The Department of Energy (DOE) and Department of Transportation (DOT) will establish a Joint Office of Energy and Transportation focused on deploying EV infrastructure."

2. $5 billion in funding for a national charging network.

3. $2.5 billion in additional charger funding.

4. Target of 50% EV penetration by 2030.

5. DOT will publish standards for EV chargers.

6. "Increase domestic manufacturing of EV batteries and components and advance environmentally responsible domestic sourcing and recycling of critical minerals."

7. "$17 billion in loan authority in the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program (ATVM) to support the domestic battery supply chain. LPO will leverage full statutory authority to finance key strategic areas of development and fill deficits in the domestic supply chain capacity. This will include the ATVM program making loans to manufacturers of advanced technology vehicle battery cells and packs for re-equipping, expanding or establishing such manufacturing facilities in the United States."

8. "Leverage $13 million in FEMP's Assisting Federal Facilities with Energy Conservation Technologies grants to unlock an estimated $260 million or more in project investments, including battery storage projects."

9. "Funded two dozen teams to expand sourcing of lithium from geothermal brines and approved a permit for the Nevada-based Thacker Pass lithium mine."

10. "Automakers are also signing contracts that leverage domestic supply, including Ford sourcing lithium from recycled content through Redwood Materials, GM sourcing lithium from geothermal brines in the Salton Sea with Controlled Thermal Resources, and Tesla sourcing lithium from a Piedmont project in North Carolina."

11. "$7 billion in funding to accelerate innovations and facilities across the battery supply chain from battery materials refining, processing and manufacturing to battery manufacturing, including components, to battery recycling and reuse. These investments will support the development of a North American battery supply chain, help expand manufacturing and recycling facilities in the United States and substantially advance the battery recycling through research, development and demonstration projects in collaboration with retailers as well as state and local governments."

12. Last, we can see quite a bit of additional funding for batteries via:


Infrastructure bill batteries funding
(Source: December 13, 2021 White House Statement)

Author's Assessment Of Government Lithium Support
Point number 9 is one of the more interesting points. Lithium Americas Thacker Pass was approved during the final days of the Trump administration. While the Biden administration is trying to take credit for approving the mine --- this attempt at ownership does show the intent of the Biden administration. Frankly, if Thacker Pass in Nevada were to not be approved, the impact upon United States lithium would be rather stark. It would send a clear message to the industry to avoid investments in United States based lithium. Nevada is one of the most friendly locations for mining in the U.S., throwing a 10+ year project under the bus would hinder future lithium exploration and battery ambitions in the United States.

The Biden administration trying to take credit for Thacker Pass sends a clear message to the U.S. government and state entities that the administration is supporting lithium and is giving its papal blessings to Thacker Pass. In addition, the government is supporting United States battery production, but more on this in a moment. Let's look at Thacker Pass.

Approval Of Thacker Pass
Thacker Pass is the linchpin of American lithium projects. Will the BLM approval be upheld? Having read many of the legal documents via Pacer, I would say it will be upheld. Frankly, the prosecution is throwing many Hail Mary plays but nothing is sticking. Also, if we look at Judge Du's background we can see how she has ruled in the past. A key Hail Mary argument is that Thacker Pass will impact Sage Grouse. We can see that (Obama appointed) Judge Du was not buying such speculation in the past, per a December 2015 case involving Sage Grouse.

December 2015 case involving Sage Grouse
(Source: Apnnews.com, highlight from author)

One of the key points of the prosecution is things that -might- happen. Sage Grouse might be impacted. Rare snails might be impacted. Plants might be impacted, but we cannot prove they will be impacted. Given the footprint and the geographic isolation (One rancher lives within a few miles of the project), the overall takeaway from the above judge's ruling is I would not personally bet on her going with hypothetical scenarios, especially after the Biden administration is signaling its intent towards lithium.

Lithium Americas Battery Ambitions
Disclaimer: Before we get into the battery section do note that you should consider this entire section speculative in nature. This part involves some analysis and guess work. Consider it a "what if" scenario.
Different companies have a different feel. Some are content to simply focus on a lithium project. Others want to be a lithium powerhouse. Either approach is kosher if the management team can take on the associated duties and has the capital and experience to pull it off. Cypress Development is laser focused on Clayton Valley, and being only one of three companies in the valley that have water rights they are progressing quite nicely. Standard Lithium is obsessed with Arkansas with its California project mothballed and that is fine. One day they will get back to that project. Lithium Americas, however, is not content to simply work on one project or even two projects. They are engaged on many lithium fronts, but they are not content to simply be a lithium miner or even a large lithium miner. No indeed. Lithium Americas wants to vertically integrate and become a battery producer.

BLM Documents And Batteries
The battery factory has since been removed from Thacker Pass to my knowledge (as it would require extra permitting), but read below and then ponder what happens if LAC simply moves the battery plant to other property it owns? Reading the old proposal for the Nevada mine at the Bureau of Land Management website, I could not help but notice that Lithium Americas has laid out its plans to build a lithium battery factory. You can read the entire proposal here, but the bulk is located in document "DEIS Chapters 1-6." On page 1-3 we are greeted with:

"Construction and operation of a battery production facility" and "Battery production complex" on pages 2-8.

Now did they at one time want to create this battery complex? Per LAC from Appendix B:

"Due to rapidly rising demand by the uptake in electric vehicles and energy storage, securing lithium supply has become a top priority for battery producers and vehicle manufacturers. Lithium is contained on a list of 35 critical minerals defined by the United State Department of the Interior (83 Federal Register [FR] 23295) pursuant to Executive Order 13817 of December 20, 2017, A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals. The executive order includes a policy clause for "streamlining leasing and permitting processes to expedite exploration, production, processing, reprocessing, recycling, and domestic refining of critical minerals."

Looking at Figure 13, we can see the below picture of the former proposed battery facility. The former proposed battery plant appears to be approx. 160,000 square feet by my calculations.
Proposed battery plant

(Source: DEIS - Note the former battery production complex circled in blue)

A close-up view of the battery production complex
(Source: DEIS - A close-up view of the battery production complex)

And we can read additional details of what LAC wanted to put on the property in the past via:

DEIS Document Section 2.2.5.9
(DEIS Document Section 2.2.5.9, highlights from author)

Biden And Batteries
So we know that at one time Lithium Americas wanted a battery factory at Thacker Pass. We also know Biden and crew want to bring battery production to the United States via point #6 above. Additionally, money is available via the government for this purpose via:

Infrastructure bill batteries funding
(Source: December 13, 2021 White House Statement, highlights from author)

At this point the question would be: Where to locate it? While they might put it on the Thacker Pass location, this would come with its own set of headaches. They might also locate it elsewhere to avoid unnecessary legal shenanigans.

Lithium Nevada has two properties that are near Thacker Pass.

Lithium Nevada properties near Thacker Pass
(Source: Arcgis & Type In "Lithium Nevada")

Property #1 is to the east of Thacker Pass and weighs in at 160 acres. Property #2 is comprised of two parts: The north part in green at 215 acres; the south side at 105 acres.

Both properties are zoned as M-3, which falls under mining and commercial use per Humboldt counties codes. I would venture that property #2 is more likely a location to place the plant, but that is just idle speculation. In the end the thing to remember is we can see the intent of the company and the Biden administration concerning EV batteries. It will be interesting to see how LAC and batteries play out. I doubt we have seen the last of this subject.

Commercial Demand
Before we wrap this up, we need to look at news on the commercial side of things. Now I could wow you with a rather long list of demand that is coming, or I could just drop this on you: Volkswagen is set to invest $100 billion into lithium in the next five years. I really do not need to explain why that is significant.


Conclusion
Massive government support combined with cyclopean amounts of capital being invested by commercial endeavors bodes well for the future of EV and lithium. With this, our largest holding is Cypress Development followed by Nano One and then Lithium Americas. Even though inflation fears abound, my personal theory is lithium will reward long-term investors. However, keep some powder dry for when waters become choppy. Remember chaos and rough seas can offer up opportunity.

This article was written by

Austin Craig profile picture
Austin Craig
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"Never let formal education get in the way of your learning". - Mark Twain,,,You are here for one reason. You want "actionable Intelligence". If you wanted a history lesson on a company then Google is your friend. My aim is to provide intelligence that you can read, ponder, and then execute upon to make a profit or avoid a loss. A price of a stock is almost irrelevant. It is the last thing to consider when buying a stock. If you don't pay attention to management, financials (go back 3 years), the sector, global macros, your portfolio mix, along with risk/reward for capital used and the company news, you are ignoring all of the things that come before price. Price is mostly real-time sentiment. It is hardly ever a good indicator of value.People who only look at price will fail as investors, because price is a result of fundamentals, news, and sentiment. You have to learn to "take" from the market, if at all possible, make it give you what you want.Use targets, set limits, protect your capital with stops and if something changes fundamentally, review, review, review.You can't read too much. If it was easy everyone would be doing it. Now you have no reason to not get Alpha.
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Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of LAC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: We also own Standard Lithium, Cypress Development.
We own LAC long calls as well.