I think in 2022 we will see some heavy corrections even though the fed announcement of 3 raised rates are known and were supposedly "baked in" in that redstorm early december. but fear sells. pun intended.
but overall, the thesis on UBQU is the 100% exact same that hedge funds have with ...well every penny stock, especially trips, amy jimmy, prog and marky mark, wacky D and Rumbles new SPAC
that short thesis is: you take their revenues, minus their debt, and wow, they are hugely in the negative, also toss in for good measure that the CEO is corrupt (and if folks, you think ballas hate is unique among forums for stocks, you need to check out more forums for other stocks)
so why do I consider UBQU an ape stock and why do apes continue to BUY these. well the squeeze of course.
in general if its still tradeable and any worthless company has too many shorts paying huge short interest (I know UBQu has none but hear me out), in the end with enough volume and options chains the buyers can force the MMs and short players to abandon the position....
- Hedgie doesn't think of sentiment on these stocks
- Hedgie doesn't calculate how retail KNOWS they are being manipulated by hedgie and retailers don't like that, so there is some emotion there.
and now to fundamental flaws in the short thesis:
- some of these analysts are lazy, or just not bright. they take Revenue minus debt and if less than zero, short it. they don't think of what they might be doing with cash in the bank, restructuring toxic debt, or how they are turning negative revenues into positive cash flows, or how they are CHANGING their business models to INCREASE revenues for the future. investors aren't buying stock thinking of the price NOW, they are thinking where it will be in the future. while shorters are thinking the target is 0.
- in the case of jimmy, the shorters are extra special screwed, because jimmy HAS NO DEBT. instead they short jimmy when its revenues are up but profits down, IGNORING that jimmy is reinvesting the profits into NFT marketplaces, crypto and distribution centers. this tells me one of two things, hedgie analysts are really really dumb, but actually I think hedgie just has to keep the short going cuz if they had to cover, oh how they will be screwed
- also hedgie has some pride in their algorythms. they pay a lot for them. of course those algorithms were programmed on apes in all stocks panicing on big red, SELLING and capitulating making it easy to cover shorts and not green rip the stock. it didn't work too well in 2021, and It ain't going to get any better for hedgie imo in 2022.
speaking of covering, and this DOES affect UBQU... right now the fed, the SEC and the government has a law, if you short a company and it goes bankrupt, why you never need to cover your shorts (naked or not). OR CLOSE THE POSITION (so tax free!)
so like TOys R us, JC Penny, and too manyh to mention, who knows? they don't even have (yet) to file short positions on 13Fs....they could have shorted them 400X the floats in 2019-2020 or MORE with tons of nakeds, and every short just permanent cash, and no taxes.
what an incentive to destroy american infrastructure, eh?
makes me mad, hope it makes you mad too.
anyhoo, my theory is this. UBQU just has. to. stay. alive. sadly it might be 2-3 years before the rules change, but the old cadre of L & Rinos are going away.
I can see shorts FORCED to be filed on 13Fs
I can see bankruptcy shorts considered CLOSED AND TAXABLE conditions
I can see a lot less wrist slapping on FTD naked shorts.
more boiling pots of oil going away.
but even if those take a while, I think if ballas can just keep all these pink current and not go BK, MMs are screwed.
in general they are now screwed on amy and jimmy, becuase even if the REPORTED shorts are legit, if they just covered THOSE, just those legally reported.....moass happens.
and jimmy is gonna become competitive with amazon, and Amy now has a billion dollars, and is making moves as we speak to do quantum leaps of revenue from "just selling tickets and concessions"
memberships, streaming, concessions sales, sports streaming in theatre.
what if AMy decides to allow sports betting (sports betting is as legal as MJ in most states now, will probably grow like MJ legalization)
revenues could go from 1B a year to casino levels.
so the short thesis on UBQU is similar. it's a crud company with a crud ceo therefore it WOULD be bankrupt, short it, LEGALLY naked short it. get retailers out of the play, get TOXIC Lenders to short it so ballas' DEBT NEVER GOES AWAY.
but the problem hedgie has is the apes are getting wise,
including on penny stocks, including trips.
have you guys seen any of those youtubes talking abotu how market makers WANT to drive any 1-10 dollar stock into trips (if they can't bankrupt them)
anyhoo I might have rambled so much that it might be pulled as "off topic" but I'll make it clear, as I see it, UBQU is LINKED now to the same HEDGE FUNDS SHORT THESES (and MMs citadel MM is the same as citadel hedge fund, just like wal mart mexico is still wal mart) as any of the bigger "meme stocks"
I could understand tho guys if the TA say we run to 0010...and weakness shows up, I won't like, you might wanna take profits on the flip. it doesn't HELP if a squeeze could happen on UBQU, but because UBQU does still have a LOT of problems (not because ballas is some evil ogre,I think ballas entered some good faith deals in 2017-2018 and ballas was a fool. then. and it wasnt until january and June 2021 that ballas and a ton of AGONIZED CEOs got some education on how hope was possible.
I think ballas took until last minute to tell a buddha of this board he was striving to get current was because before 2021, honestly, a lot of these penny stocks had just given up.
(and a lot of penny stocks were just useless wild west piles of shares, so they just let the SEC end them, and the Mms and shorters there made bank) and I think Ballas was about to, then he changed his mind
and last but not least, right now why would hedgie cover any shorts on UBQU naked or not?? no interest paid....tons of retailers still HATE the CEO and HATE the stock.....
why would hedgie and MM cover indeed.
ticker change. mergers and acquisitions. anything that forces FINRA and the SEC to call it all back so they can change UBQU to something new forces all those long to have their borrowed shares covered so they can take a day to change the letters.
then we'll find out just how many of those shorts, naked, hidden, or otherwise, are out there.
so possibly another run early january, but I don't think ballas has all the toxic lenders fixed, or if they DID ticker change with all those toxic lenders out there....what are the toxic lenders gonna do as say....2-3 BILLION shares start auto buying?
why grab 2-3B of the 28B remaining and drive it right back to trip 2, saving hedgie's ass and pissing off every body who is long on the stock. also the squeeze would be averted.
some say "UBQU trying to get a symbol change for 3 years" which is implied ballas is a FAILURE and they never will
now that I know how the game is playhed by hedgie, I don't wanna symbol change UNTIL the toxic lenders are GONE from UBQU and GDET. gone. I don't care if Ballas takes out a bank loan, or mortgages his life, if Ballas wants this to rip , so he can pay off the 8M debt between UBQU and GDET, he need to get a run to a penny, say, then sell 800 million of those 28B.
27.2B still in A/S, and if this happened the haters would scream (even tho they probably would sell much sooner than a penny) oh no ballas will now sell the 27.2B ....sell sell
but if I was ballas, and I just got OUT OF DEBT, surely maybe I drove the stock back down to 0050...then I PR....hey GDET and UBQU are out of debt! now I'm gonna MERGE them....or get a ticker change....or recall the remaining A/S.....in that order.
and what if say he sold a whole billion of the 28B for average penny and had 2 million in the bank? catch up with some failing revenues for sure, STAY out of debt....and chase that GDET crypto card...used in casinos.
expand ambassador, etc.
regardless, being cash Flow positive really hurts that MM short thesis.
so, one more P&D before I give up. I wanna see what causes the P, and how ugly the D is. and if the accumulation goes down and the distribution goes up.
and if it is another toxic lender? maybe they too get liquidated by the SEC :)
