Market Direction and Stock Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) - Turning BACK DOWN »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 18, 2021

NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 1516968 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's settlement of 1288828. Currently, this market has been rising for 6 months going into December suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 1493106 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 1545139.


ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Mar. 14, 2022. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2007 and 2000.


MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2002 moving into 2021, which has been a run of 19 years warning that timing wise a pause remains possible.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 1540825.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 22nd at 1621223, which was up 38 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 1st. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of November 29th, which has been a move of .0445%.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.


Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 20 months since the low established back in March 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1442300 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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