Biotech Values

[valueHunter]

Expert prediction of clinical program outcomes

Hello! I'm interested in hearing everyone's thoughts and starting a conversation to investigate the following question: To what extent can a clinical program's success or failure be predicted using knowledge of drug mode-of-action, published research, clinical endpoints, etc.etc. I've gone back through these boards and elsewhere after some high-profile misses (Nuvelo with Alfimeprase, Pfizer with Torcetrapib) and found some skepticism about those programs. I know I may be asking a biased crowd (I don't think we'd be here if we thought it was a crapshoot). Does anyone have insights they'd like to share about the process? What are the limitations? How do you maximize predictive power? Any tips for doing research?

What does it take to beat Joe Baggadonuts?