Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (HALO)

[maumar]

I do think the lack of new deals is one of the big issues. The other one is what Helen pointed out in yesterday's cc: no new Enhanze products will be approved in the next 18 to 24 months. There will be some erosion from Wave 1 products, Phesgo won't be a huge driver, so probably 95% of the growth will have to come from Darzalex FasPro.

We have 11 partnerships but at least 80% of our royalties will come from one product for at least another two years. As Helen explained, SC Efgartigimod may get approved 24 months from now but just for one indication (MG), so significant royalties won't come until 2025. Of course by then we may have the first step down in royalties, etc. The step downs are not a sure thing but the uncertainty will disappear only if and when Halo's partners get coformulation patents.

Not sure if $10B in 2025 is consensus revenue estimate for Darzalex. That seems aggressive. I am actually concerned there will be positive news from competing drugs at ASH that could hurt us. We have a lot of eggs in the Darzalex basket.

In any case, unless the conversion rate for Darzalex FasPro gets close to 100%, royalties will not grow at 40% in the next couple of years. More new deals and unexpected progress of products in the clinic are the only drivers that can take us back to new highs in the next year or so imho.