So here is some speculation on what I think may happen over the next few weeks to months.
I anticipate the peer review being published before Christmas and MHRA approving or denying Lenzilumab around the same time. I am leaning towards MHRA approval with 70/30 odds at this point. Peer review is almost guaranteed to be very positive based on what we already know and what has been discussed by the Mayo Clinic and others.
Then comes the ACTIV-5 data in 3-4 months.
Personally I think that if peer review is as positive as we all are pretty sure it will be, and MHRA issues approval, our stock price should be back in the high teens to low twenties with these two positive catalysts and we will be fielding buyout offers prior to the ACTIV-5 data release.
This would be the perfect time for acquisition. Validation on the science and validation on commercialization, but not so much that our new value makes us less desirable for acquisition.
Companies that would be interested in my opinion include, but are not limited to, Abbvie, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer.
All four are in the CAR-T space and of course Pfizer has two covid drugs, the vaccine and now the oral pill.
GSK is developing a second gen covid vaccine and is currently in the market for acquiring companies in the covid and specialty medicine space.
Abbvie's Humira, which has come out of patent, now has competition in the form of biosimilars as well as new biologics, and they are looking for new paths to future revenue with CAR-T being a big part of that plan.
Gilead already has history with HGEN through the KITE collaboration that was terminated early this year.
What would we see as a buyout price?
I would think that 3-5 billion would be in the ballpark if we see UK regulatory approval and positive peer review.
Personally I think that given what we know about Humanigen that a buyout has always been the end game. Cameron Durrant has been down this path several times now and the way the company is structured backs up that notion in my opinion.
In summary: Lenzilumab has a bright future in CAR-T alone and covid commercialization will only increase the potential for a near term buyout. These next few months should be very interesting to say the least.
AI
