BUY
Initiation Report November 5, 2021
Alzamend Neuro
NASDAQ: ALZN: $2.29 Target: $15.00
James Jang
Director of Research
jjang@univest.us
212.343.8888
From the Earth to the Brain, Lithium Puts the
Li in Life: Initiating Coverage of Alzamend
(ALZN)
Investment recommendation
Investment Highlights
• AL001 use for Alzheimer’s Disease is a way to shorten the timeline for
the other indications of depression, PTSD, and bipolar disorder where
we believe there is a better market for lithium. The FDA has programs
in place for breakthrough therapies and fast track that allow
experimental drugs to get through the approval process faster.
Alzamend has the potential to file for these programs with their AL001
drug for Alzheimer’s, which would allow for quicker data gathering that
can then be used for the other indications. Since AL001 will be the
same formulation for each indication, safety and tolerability can be
skipped for the other indications and trials can smaller and quicker
which can reduce time to approval.
• Reformulation of an approved therapy allows for easy acceptance with
safer profile. Lithium Carbonate has been an approved therapy for
many years for bipolar disorder and off-label use for depression. While
it is an approved therapy, there are still many risks associated with this
treatment; with high levels of lithium causing liver and kidney damage.
Alzamend’s new formulation helps to limit these issues while extending
the therapeutic window (reduce dosage), while maintaining a high level
of efficacy. Since Lithium is an approved therapy, we expect AL001 to
have a shorter pathway through clinical trails. This should lead to a
reduction in the time to approval, lower costs, and the potential for
quicker revenue generation.
Based on our discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, we value ALZN at
$15 per share which is based on about a 1.0x multiple to our DCF derived
price of $14.81. Currently, we are conservatively omitting AL001 and AL002
indications for Alzheimer’s Disease from our estimates at this time. While we
believe ALZN’s differentiated approach to Alzheimer’s Disease could serve as
a major catalyst, at this time we view the AL001 and AL002 programs for
Alzheimer’s Disease as a free call option at current valuation levels. Therefore,
we initiate coverage of ALZN with a BUY rating and $15 price target.
REVENUE (000s)
EBITDA (000s)
Consumer Products - Nutraceuticals
EPS
We are initiating coverage of Alzamend Neuro (ALZN) with a BUY rating and
$15 price target. We believe ALZN could unlock a quicker pathway to
revenue generation by utilizing its patented AL001 (LiProSal) ionic cocrystal
to treat a host of psychiatric disorders.
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’s personal, independent, and
objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important information, please see
the Import Disclosures section in the appendix of this document.
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
Valuation
Cash (000)
GAAP EPS
BIOTECHNOLOGY F2021 F2022E F2023E
1Q ($0.03)A ($0.03)E
2Q ($0.02)E ($0.03)E
3Q ($0.02)E ($0.03)E
4Q ($0.02)E ($0.02)E
FY ($0.07)A ($0.10)E ($0.10)EF2021 F2022E F2023E
1Q $15,618A $8,461E
2Q $14,880E $4,938E
3Q $13,533E $13,393E
4Q $12,032E $11,614E
FY $1,929A $12,032E $11,614E -
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
6/15/2021 7/15/2021 8/15/2021 9/15/2021 10/15/2021
Volume (RHS) Price (LHS)Comp a ny St a t ist ics
Closing Price 11/4/2021 $2.29
52-week Range $2.04 - $33.55
Market Cap (M): $198.97
Avg. Daily Volume: 2,119,516
Debt (M): 0.34
Risk Profile: High
Fiscal Year End: April
