Excerpts: The market is insanely overvalued, but until now has proven that what is insane can become more insane. So you can't short it. Frankly all price signals are broken and we could be in a "crack up boom".
I do see signs of weakness (Evergrande, yield curve heading toward inversion, Fed reducing QE won't help). Personally I think we are near the end and close to a crash, but I have thought that for some time and have obviously been wrong.
Inflation coming in hot and being persistent is probably the most likely catalyst. Inflation will reduce profit margins and will make the current multiples look even more insane. Catalyst: psychology changes. Technically upward momentum has slowed. I think we are very near the end.
Gold was up over 50% in a two year window. It is down 15% in the past year. It is crazy and partly due to price suppression by the Central Banks, but they cannot hold it down forever and the next run will take it to new all time highs quickly in my opinion.
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