Merck and Co Inc (MRK)

[Stock_Barber]

Ten days have passed since Merck dropped its bombshell announcement about Molnupiravir, its "revolutionary" anti-viral that purports to lessen severe COVID and death by half in vulnerable unvaccinated patients.

But as scientists warn about potential unexamined safety issues with molnupirvavir, analysts at Goldman Sachs are reminding clients that Merck is hardly alone in the race to produce an effective antiviral that could function like the Tamiflu of COVID.

Looking ahead to Q42021 and on to Q12022, Goldman is looking forward to drug readouts from Roche, Pfizer, Shionogi and others developing oral antivirals. Goldman's discussions with clients about the potential influence of antiviralls "...indicate that key questions about oral antivirals largely center on: 1) clinical differentiation among the various programs; 2) data and approval timelines, supply, and pricing; and 3) the potential for pediatric and prophylactic use. Within, we size up the market potential and TAM with our market model and frame key upcoming readouts for the late stage programs. We also provide a list of upcoming catalysts in the category."

For investors seeking "exposure to the antiviral theme", Goldman recommends 1) Roche, as preclinical data for its AT-5227 suggest "differentiation" vs. molnupiravir, 2) Shionogi, whose S-217622 represents an alternative to RNA polymerase therapies, and 3) Divi's Labs, which will ride molnupiravir's coattails.