Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Donotunderstand]

indexing has always worked

The CAGR of the Dow Jones (reinvested) and or the S and P - over time - over downs and ups and more downs is 9+% since say 1900

The STD Deviation is WICKED for such Compounded Avergage Growth Rate at 18%

So there are years with 45% up and years with 40% down (not overly using the 2.5% on each side of a 2X STD is 95%)

There have been decades - of about 1/2% negative per year
There have been decades - of about 20%

Note re bull market - but it was preceeded by ugly market
CAGR since 1990 is 10% 30 years
CAGR since 2000 is 6.59% (yes 2008 took a bite !!)
CAGR since 2010 is 13.5% (yes great 10 years)

But the point ----- use the 30 years - to include good horrible and worse year and good and - bamm its 10% of just a smidge over its average

It works
And since 9% is -- ON AVERAGE - a doubling over every 8 years (better to aniticipate 4 over 32 years v a double any 8 years) ---do the math on what happens to 100,000 multiplied by 9.25% or so over say 40 years

If stock picking and timing can do better - for other than those who have the websites with advice --- over long periods like 30 years --- they number maybe 2 or 3 --- who can maintain such a return

And no one knows the future - all of this is the past - to include the Great Depression the Greater Recession WWI WWII and all types of horrible stuff --- and then some low interest high growth periods

Sorry ----- buy the stock average and hold tight has worked - past tense - consistently if you hold say 25 years