dougSF30, blauboad, I concur that an Intel entry with an AMD64+ product would be good for AMD sales in the short term. The architecture would be validated and there will be a lot of developers running out and purchasing AMD64 machines to tool up for the new world. Corporate executive desktops will feature AMD64 as the new, sexy harbinger of the future. Cad rooms will have to have them for basic productivity reasons.
About that '+': When AMD granted Intel a license for AMD64, the terms were not announced. We don't know if AMD gets a royalty (that would be nice) or if AMD was seeking a validation to convince the market. Either way, I am sure that AMD would have insisted on a clause where they can use any additions (or improvements) Intel makes on the instruction set or register set. So if Intel starts with AMD64 then they would be hard pressed to steal the architecture with proprietary additions.
How would it play out long term? A lot depends on AMD execution. With Fab 30 fully producing 90nm parts, AMD will be hard pressed to supply more than 25% of the market - say 10M/Q out of a market size of 40M/Q. That assumes that 90nm will be the last process shrink at Dresden - that Dresden will finally be allowed to reach full utilization for mass production. An Intel AMD64+ product would presumably hit the market before AMD has any new 300mm fab producing.
Under this scenerio, Intel's opportunity comes before AMD ramps up 65nm/300mm. They have a one year window - 2005, to be exact - to turn on the volume and reduce prices, squeezing AMD in that year.
So, short term, an Intel entry would cause demand for AMD to skyrocket and AMD would be the toast of the town. Medium term, 2005 could be a problem as Intel manufacturing kicks in. AMD would have to tread carefully, once again pulling a rabbit out of the hat or becoming toast (I do hope they get royalties from Intel). Long term, if AMD opens a new 300mm/65nm factory in 2005 for 2006 product, simultaneously with maintaining Dresden for mature process, then it could be a whole new world.
