8:30a Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Claims - Level 351K actual vs 335K (rev) prior
Initial Claims - Change 16K actual vs 23K (rev) prior
4-Week Moving Average 335.75K actual vs 336.50K (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Jobless claims for the September 18 week (also the sample week for the monthly employment report) are expected to come in at 309,000 versus 332,000 in the prior week and 349,000 in the sample week for the August employment report.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
9:45a PMI Composite Flash
Composite Index 54.5 actual vs 55.5 prior
Manufacturing Index 60.5 actual vs 60.8 prior
Services Index 54.4 actual vs 55.1 prior
Consensus Outlook
Growth rates in the PMIs were mixed in August, in the 60s for manufacturing but slowing to the mid-50s for services. September's respective expectations are steady showings at 60.8 and 55.1.
Definition
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector output by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around 10 days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 85 percent of the full survey sample. The report tracks changes in variables such as new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across both manufacturing and services. Production is also tracked, defined as "production" for manufacturing and "output" for services. Results are synthesized into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster output is growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The data are produced by IHS Markit.
10:00a Leading Indicators
Month over Month 0.9% actual vs 0.8% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
The LEI has been pointing to strong growth ahead for the US economy. After July's 0.9 percent gain, a 0.6 percent gain is expected for August.
Definition
The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.
10:30a EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Week over Week 76bcf actual vs 83bcf prior
Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and five regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
Level 10 actual vs 22 prior
Consensus Outlook
After 29 and 30 in August and July, forecasters see the Kansas City manufacturing index steady and strong at 29 in September.
Definition
The Kansas City Fed index offers a monthly assessment of change in the region's manufacturing sector. Positive readings indicate monthly growth and negative readings monthly contraction. Readings at zero indicate no change. The headline number is the composite index, an average of the production, new orders, employment, delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.
Dan 
