Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[stockaxe]

Time for everyone to relax. A few things:

Avid's backlog at 1/31/21 and 4/30/21 was $120mm and $118mm, respectively. That means that for anywhere from 3 - 6 months in its last fiscal year, Avid had already experienced a surge in backlog. I bring that up because Humanigen is not even listed as a 10% customer for the fiscal year...so less than $9.6mm in revenue and maybe a lot less. If Humanigen was some giant portion of the backlog, wouldn't you have expected that number to be much larger? People get so obsessed with HGEN, but it is only really because that was an announced customer...i.e., Avid decided to PR that one. Keep in mind, Avid DID NOT PR Gilead, which is a much much larger customer. So I'd say focus on the overall picture, not the picture that you might see from PR.

Second, the CEO already stated the backlog is firm and customers must pay for it, and signaled they can still hit their numbers as they see it today.

Finally, listen to the call again. The CEO is basically strongly hinting that the backlog when they report in December will be significant growth. And, I'd still expect them to announce something re: new investments before the end of the year.

Long story short, this is just noise and the stock is illiquid. One uninformed or nervous investor can move the stock significantly. But that can go the other way too, and I am expecting a lot of good news before year end.