Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

Comment on CDMO Inst. Inv. 103.27% (ex 13 D/G)

source Fintel - this morning

PS: repost of II% by 4OurRetirement to keep the post-chain intact.

With 61,1 Milj outstanding shares, 3,27% is about 2Milj shares over the 100%.

If we assume that these are shares listed by II party 'A', then lended OFFICIALLY to a shorter and short-sold to parties 'B1,B2,B3,...', of which all or some also list as IIs, then it is explained that we are over 100%.

Worse, technically parties 'Bx' can now ALSO lend their shares to shorters that can again sell them, and so on. This is possible because all shares that one buys are unencumbered (fully owned by the buyer no matter where the shares cleared - from who, by who, how, why,...).

However, the shorter(s) in the middle will need to find SELLERS to close their position. Since in a dry market that is difficult to do the short interest would start to raise because new shorters will also be on the sell side. Only Notes holders could short and then buy shares if the PPS gets long enough near 28$, but that is a conflict in interest because shorters want the PPS down, note holders want the PPS up.

Every time someone will sell/short the news or short the peak etc, this problem will become bigger. The RED bar for 14 days ago and the current sudden II increase reporting from 91% to 103% in 10 days, proofs it.

This increasing short interest theory (speculation) would fit with cheynew's last short interest overview report (and related comment on the subject).

cheynew's CDMO short interest overview

Technically, the more I think about it, this situation should shorten the time needed to return to 28$. I posted 6 to 12 weeks (in analogy to the same characterized event in March 2021, but it could be sooner. As someone posted, trying to buy shares at this moment does indeed raise the PPS fast because there is no offer for the demand.

Curious how this will work out. I for sure wouldn't want to be short on CDMO at this time but I can start to see that we all should like shorters now. The more the better for us in the longer term as IIs will eat CDMO all they can.

AIMO.