Insmed Inc (INSM)

[ED20332]

Repost from ZIP512003 on Yahoo Board

Your question is a good one, though... IF we get "injunction" AND EU approval, what will happen?
First of all, what are the chances of each?
Injunction has nearly ZERO chance of happening.. why? Iplex™ has ORPHAN status with FDA... that means that it cannot be injuncted without a full YEAR advanced notice! (see Insmed's response to TRCA's injunction request).
Secondly, there is EVERY indication that Iplex™ WILL be approved by EMEA, as they are getting help through the process... EMEA helping Insmed
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks...

So, the "hidden question" in your post is.. "what should I do about it"? IF you believe BOTH 1 AND 2 of the above, AND are not concerned with momentary fluctuations in PPS, buy 1/3 of a position here, then another 1/3 prior to 2/16, (the date of Wilken's decision), and the other 1/3 afterwards...BUT, IF you believe #1 IS likely to occur, (injunction), then you should hold off buying until after 2/16...
What are the dangers to each strategy? For strategy #1, there is a danger that some other "bad news" (in addition to the injunction), will happen between now and then, which would make your shares go down in value...
For strategy #2 the danger is that GOOD news will come prior to Feb 16, (settlement, buyout, compulsory license, etc.). In that case, the danger would be that you "can't sell from an empty wagon"... AND that the share price will go UP too fast to get onboard,
As you can see, there are no "easy" decisions here... IF you buy now, there are risks, (although small, imo), and IF you wait until after Feb 16th there are risks of missing a big gain, (more likely, imo).
NO stock comes without risks... NONE! The seasoned investor realizes that, and makes decisions based on all known risks, AND all known rewards. Investing, (or even "trading"), is NOT easy, and NOT for everyone...
GLTY!