Microbix Biosystems Inc (MBXBF)

[yielddude]

Outlook Statement from MBX


Microbix’ primary business is the result of over three decades of experience manufacturing high quality viral and bacterial antigens – for use in the medical diagnostic testing industry. Its many antigen products have received widespread and longstanding acceptance by “immunoassay” diagnostic test makers, with continuing growth in demand being the general trend prior to the pandemic. Microbix antigens are now used by over 100 diagnostics manufacturers and are the critical biology inside tens of millions of medical tests for bacterial and viral diseases.

From 2017 until the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, growth in demand for Microbix’ antigens had been stronger to end-customers in both established and emerging markets. Much of that growth was believed to be due to a number of diagnostics for infectious diseases important to public health beginning to be adopted in the Asia-Pacific region. In fiscal 2018 and across fiscal 2019, we saw the emergence of this Asian demand materialize in orders from our distribution partner for such markets, as well as from customers based in North America and Europe that were achieving growing sales into Asia. While we believe Asia-Pacific demand for antigens should continue to grow over time, sales to this newer market were also adding to the quarter-to-quarter volatility of Microbix’s revenues. From fiscal 2020, antigen demand has demonstrated further volatility as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on patient behaviours and global allocation of testing resources.

Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, the long-term effect of increasing Asia-Pacific test usage may be to take Microbix’s potential antigens market from being the population of North America and Western Europe to closer to the much larger overall global population. As a leading global supplier of such vital native antigens that has created and validated leading-edge production techniques, Microbix believes it is now well-prepared to fulfill such demand growth.

In fiscal 2020, a different antigens market driver emerged in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic. While Microbix does not currently supply native or recombinant antigens for immunoassay tests for the Coronavirus that causes COVID-19 disease (properly called the SARS-CoV-2 virus), it does expect to see lasting long-term benefits within its antigens business. Such benefits would initially come from increased testing capacity in general, and specifically from increased immunologic testing for exposure to respiratory pathogens other than the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Notably, healthcare practitioners and public health authorities are likely to want a definitive diagnosis of the reason for illness if a patient tests negative for SARS-CoV-2 (i.e., if not that, then what?) and may want to know if a patient is co-infected with another respiratory pathogen if they test positive for SARS-CoV-2 (e.g., at greater risk because co-infected with an influenza virus or a resulting bacterial infection). Microbix has begun to see its flow of orders for some of its respiratory antigens increase, as its products form an integral part of some approved tests. However, at present, patient testing in relation to diseases other than respiratory infections are continuing to be disrupted as a result of several factors, including testing resources limitations, patient reluctance to see medical professionals for non-emergency issues, and recurring societal lockdowns. It is important to note that these factors are not unique to Microbix, but are affecting the entire diagnostics industry on a worldwide basis.

Microbix’s QAPs business involves the use of antigens, nucleic acids or proteins (collectively, biomaterials) for purposes beyond the large-scale manufacturing of medical test kits. This newer usage packages a very small amount of such stabilized and inactivated biomaterials into individual small vials (e.g., ~1.0 ml) or dried onto sample collection swabs (i.e., Copan® “FLOQSwabs®”). Such samples are used as tools to establish whether the quality objectives of clinical laboratories are being met – for example to assess whether testing equipment is functioning properly, if staff has been adequately trained and is performing properly, or if reagents have spoiled. Such innovative, proprietary, and branded quality assessment products (QAPs™, pronounced as “caps”) are a high value end-use of Microbix’s biologicals expertise and there is a growing need for such products as regulators progressively tighten their surveillance of the competence of medical testing labs. Notable drivers for such demand are the U.S. “CLIA” regulations, European Union IVD-D and IVD-R regulations, and ISO 15189 standards, that are all encouraging labs to increase use of quality products from qualified third-parties across their ever- broadening portfolio of tests. In the nine months of the current fiscal 2021 year-to-date (YTD) , Microbix derived over one-quarter of its sales from providing QAPs – to laboratory accreditation organizations, diagnostic test and instrument-makers and to clinical laboratories (directly and via distributors). This is an increase from 15% across fiscal 2020, and 10% historically – reflecting the strong growth of the QAPs product category (e.g., sales increase of
243% for YTD fiscal 2021 compared to the prior year equivalent period).

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a pertinent illustration of the need for QAPs and Microbix’s capabilities to create, license/register, and manufacture such products. As Microbix concluded this emerging pathogen had potential to create a pandemic, it began the development of QAPs products directed at supporting the accuracy of emerging molecular (RT-PCR) tests for the virus. Discussions around the development of this product began in February, 2020, were followed by Canadian, EU and U.S. licensings/registrations through the spring, and led to first sales in all three markets prior to June 30, 2020. Subsequently, Microbix has also announced QAPs to support RT-PCR testing for multiple COVID variants- of-concern, for COVID antigen-tests, and, most recently, for COVID serological tests. However important, COVID remains only a portion of Microbix’s QAPs portfolio, which now comprises more than 70 discreet products that are principally in the respiratory and sexually-transmitted disease categories. That broad portfolio of QAPs has enabled Microbix to build-out a global distribution network for this product line, with a total of nine distributors now providing end-user access and sales support in over 30 countries.

In fiscal 2021, Microbix announced further projects to support the fight against the pandemic – including its project to produce viral transport medium (DxTM) in support of Ontario’s RT-PCR testing for COVID-19 disease. An Ontario Together Fund grant to support this project was announced in fiscal Q1, Microbix completed its technical file to enable Canadian sales in fiscal Q2, and a material first order of $4.25 million was received from Ontario-based procurement Authorities in April, 2021. The benefits from that first order are reflected in the results for fiscal Q3, as they will again across fiscal Q4, 2021.

It is worth repeating that everyone at Microbix has been working hard to help conquer the new challenges to human health and well-being throughout this very challenging pandemic.

Due to the positive prospects of each of the above lines of its business and products, Microbix continues to reinvest to better ensure that it can meet expected growth in demand. Such work includes upgrading its manufacturing technologies, quality systems, processes and training, capacity and allocation of resources, along with developing and launching new products. This has involved many steps to both de-bottleneck and de-risk our production processes, work that will be ongoing as Microbix continues to grow sales across our product lines. Starting in fiscal 2018, multiple upgrades to facilities have been made and further investments will continue to be made in infrastructure going forward, such as those discussed in the Public Offering prospectus dated May 19, 2021 Additionally, Microbix will be investing in our people – with efforts to enhance training, career progression, and retention.

Benefits of the manufacturing upgrades have now become readily apparent, with Microbix capable of supporting year-over-year sales growth of over 80% in Q3, 2021 and 66% YTD. Additionally gross margins for Q3 2021 improved to 63% from just 47% the prior year due to both a greater proportion of branded products (55% vs. 20%), better control of production processes and an improved product mix. Fiscal Q3
2021 is the first quarter that fully reflects Microbix’s work in positioning for continuing sales growth, to materially improve its percentage gross margins, and drive toward a higher proportion of higher margin products. This statement is most conclusively supported by the $1.5 million of net earnings recorded for Q3 of fiscal 2021, for a gratifying net earnings margin of 28%.

More broadly speaking though, fiscal 2020 and 2021 have proved to be challenging for many companies, including Microbix. The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting normal antigen ordering patterns and has delayed the widespread uptake of Microbix’ novel and innovative QAPs for such areas as high- risk Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) molecular testing. The development and registration of leading-edge QAPs to support COVID-19 test accuracy have partially, but not fully, offset these disruptions and delays in fiscal 2020 and 2021. However, 2021 is now providing firm evidence of the interest in Microbix’s QAPs from the global diagnostics and clinical laboratory industries, with YTD fiscal 2021 sales of approximately $3.5 million demonstrating substantial growth from prior year-to-date. Management sees this growth continuing.

Going forward, Microbix is working to keep improving its percentage gross margin while also growing its sales of antigens and QAPs, and of DxTM. Percentage gross margin improvements, such as those seen in Q3 fiscal 2021, should be achievable by way of operational discipline across antigens, QAPs and DxTM, although variation in product sales mix will drive some quarter-to-quarter volatility. Achievement of Microbix’s sales and gross margin goals is expected to lead to increasingly meaningful quarterly net earnings, with results reporting to regularly update shareholders on progress with such operational goals.

With regards to Kinlytic urokinase, Microbix’s biologic clot-buster therapeutic, it is management’s opinion that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the difficulty of securing a partnering agreement to obtain the required re-development funding. This is for two reasons: (i) the pandemic has disrupted the business of the hospital-oriented product companies that are the logical partners for this asset (due to fewer normal-course procedures being done) and thereby constrained the new product budgets of such companies, and (ii) ongoing restrictions on physical travel (i.e., closed borders, quarantines, etc.) are making it more difficult to advance negotiations, conclude partnerships, and manage off-site manufacturing or clinical trial work.

Accordingly, Microbix cannot represent a precise timeline for securing a funding partner to advance the re-development of Kinlytic to sBLA filing and renewed commercial sales. As a consequence, management followed International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and fully impaired the book value of this asset in Q4 of fiscal 2020. However, since that time, management has continued efforts to partner this asset and thereby return the drug to the United States market for its catheter-clearance sub-indication. Microbix remains optimistic that it will achieve that objective and thereby derive value from this asset.

To summarize, the company continues to target double-digit annual percentage growth in sales, while concurrently expanding gross margins and net earnings. Sustainable growth and consistent profitability are core goals for Microbix. Those objectives should be attainable based on increasing long-term demand for antigens, implementation of innovative antigen production methods, the launch of new QAPs product lines, material sales of DxTM, and successful partnering of Kinlytic. It is intended for success with such initiatives to drive share price appreciation.

https://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do
(don't know if link will work, but from Sedar filing of 8/12/21 management discussion and analysis MDA)
Nod to Raze on Stockhouse where I first saw it.