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NY Natural Gas Futures (NG) - New Pattern Forming »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 24, 2021

NY Natural Gas Futures closed today at 40600 and is trading up about 59% for the year from last year's settlement of 25390. As of now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into July reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 40710 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 30100. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 38140.


ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Natural Gas Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2005 and 2000 and 1996.


MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical broader tone of the NY Natural Gas Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high eastablished back in 2005. Since then, this market has created 3 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2019.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Natural Gas Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 39340.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 19th at 40710, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 15th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 40710 to 36860. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 19th reaching 40710 has exceeded the previous high of 31500 made back during the week of May 17th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.


Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in December 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 24219 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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