Intel Corp (INTC)

[jhalada]

wbmw,

Your analysis gives a range, and I was going for more of an actual figure. Either way, with your other points noted, I don't think our estimates are inconsistent.

Yes. It is a range because the only information that we have from Intel is that their ASPs increased. We don't know by how much, but it must be at least 1%. Otherwise, I doubt Intel would broadcast an ASP increase that is a fraction of a percentage. That would be under "flat" category.

Hector has all of Fab36 and most of Fab30, and yet he is still paying money to Chartered for more wafers. That's at least one expense he could cut.

I agree there (on Chartered). But apparently, AMD still needed Chartered in Q4. I would expect the Chartered orders to fall until possibly Q3/Q4, when Fab 30 goes to conversion and AMD will have large die K8L to ramp.

Not really. As part of their Analyst Day, they had yet another large charge to post for the ATI acquisition. I believe it was around $430M. Add in additional losses, and you're back to a half billion in red ink.

Those may be write-offs for paying ATI higher price than the book value, not operational losses. While there will likely be operational losses in ATI division at least until R600 ramps, and small operational profit of CPU division may swing to operational loss is slow quarters (Q1 to Q2). But half billions of red ink in operational losses would only happen if Intel becomes extremely aggressive in low end of the market. And that is outside of AMD control.

Joe