Intel Corp (INTC)

[jhalada]

wbmw,

AMD claimed a 19% sequential increase in processor unit shipments, and 26% YoY. What did we assume for last year's production capacity?

To arrive at how much unit share AMD gained, you don't need to know the unit shipments. You start with last Q unit share and add the unit growth figures (which we got from the CCs). here is my summary:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23215731

As far as unit, Mercury research figures are the only ones that can be used, since they track microprocessor units in all segments (server, mobile, desktop). AMD had 23.3% in Q3 and now it should be 24.5% or more. That may be an all time high.

BTW, I think you are a little low with 239M units for the whole market. That may be because Gartner figure track PC shipments and not processor shipments. I guess it must exclude server shipments (with > 1 CPU per server) and people who build their own PCs.

But if you want to put me down for a prediction, Joe, I will say that I believe 2006 to be the apex of AMD's market share percentage.

That's quite possible, I can't predict the future. But if it is the case, it will not be because AMD lacked the capacity to gained market share. AMD capacity will soon reach (and exceed) 30%.

Given that ATI is already weighing down AMD to quarterly losses, just how much do you think AMD will lower prices to gain share?

I don't know, but we do know that AMD was capacity constrained in 2 out of 3 months of Q4. So AMD could have sold even more units, theoretically.

Then again, maybe they will. Hector Ruiz sounded pretty desperate and fanatical during the earnings conference, and it sounded like he would be willing to swim in all kinds of red ink before he slows down his production ramp.

You are assuming that if Hector slowed down the production ramp, AMD would be more profitable. I disagree. Letting expensive equipment sit idle is not a recipe for profit.

So Hector can at this point (considering competitive situation of both companies respective products) do only one thing, which is to go for more unit market share to try to keep its factories full. In my book, when you have only one option and you take it, you are not fanatical.

So maybe they will gain another point or 2, and post more half billion dollar losses.

Now you are getting silly.

Joe