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Re: None

Saturday, 06/19/2021 8:22:59 AM

Saturday, June 19, 2021 8:22:59 AM

Post# of 1836
As ChainLink's Function Users Are Growing Following Metcalfe's Law. So will Link's price

Background:

Function Calls (Callers)

"... ChainLink permits a user to capture real world data by
executing software code. A request to execute this
code is termed a function call. For example, if fictional
ABC Pharma Corp wished to monitor and record
shipments of prescription painkillers, an oracle could
record the quantity, price, date, and time of that
activity. ABC may want to do this to ensure its drugs
are not stolen or misdelivered..."


Unique Function Callers as an Accurate
User Count


"...Function calls to ChainLink increase LINK’s value
because it represents a direct financial interest in the
oracle service ChainLink provides. The converse it not
true; an increase in LINK’s price does not trigger
people to make function calls to the ChainLink
network..."


Summary:

Value

"...There is an extensive and growing library of material
supporting Metcalfe’s Law as the basis for network
valuation, including financial networks and
cryptocurrency networks.

We obtained the daily count of unique callers from
bloxy.info and applied Metcalfe’s Law to value LINK as
a network.

For this research, we use the formula

???? = ????????

where
???? = 0.5????(???? - 1)

n is unique caller count per day and A is an exponential
decay factor proportional to users and adjusted for
price elasticity of demand.


ChainLink’s daily function caller activity can vary
greatly from day to day. However, we can look at
long- and short-term trends and estimate a high and
low boundary around LINK’s daily Metcalfe Value.
LINK’s price has mostly stayed above the lower bound
of this range. Two notable exceptions are December
2018 (the nadir of “crypto winter”) and the market
crash of March 2020.



Using the lower bound of Metcalfe Value as a
baseline, we can look at the relationship of Price to
Value to evaluate whether LINK is or has been priced
near equilibrium and what the downside risk might be.



https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5f3bba7fe0cc631d15da5c04/1597749887865/research+note+8.17.1.pdf


Conclusion:

Chainlink's price will follow Metcalfe's Law of exponential growth.
Don't fight this mathematical law.







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