*** SHALL WE analyze what is really going on in detail on share count/volume?
Fact: 2006-09-30 A/S: 950 O/S: 581 Restricted: 336 Float: 245
Fact: 2006-12 A/S: 950 O/S: 581 per someone’s post on IHUB per conversation with the company. I saw it earlier when I went through posts but I didn’t make a mark which post it was.
Fact: 2007-01-23 A/S: 5,000 Restricted: 4,000 +
A/S has increased 4,050
Assume that all shares up to 950 millions beyond 581 were put into the float. Therefore float would be 245 + (950 – 581) = 614 millions. But one can go as far as all A/S 950 is now in float so maximum 950 millions are in float and non-restricted.
If what the company has said in the email is accurate: 4000 + are restricted. Half (around 2000) was used up for financing and they are restricted, and half is in the treasury for future expansions. So this means those newly increased in A/S, is not dumped into the market because it is NOT TRADABLE yet till the restricted term is reach. From what I can figure, I see that 1 year term is likely the case.
So why so much volume lately?
From 12/20/06 to 01/23/07 = 1,231 millions traded in the range of .0002 - .0008
I am certain that part of the volume went through flipping. As a method I use to calculate shares being introduced into the market with other stocks which very good accuracy when price is moving in smaller range like this … I would say that 1/3 of the volume belong to shares flipped. 1/3 goes to buys 1/3 goes to sells since every share changed hands generate volume = 2. So 1/3 of newly shares introduced into the market during 12/20/06 to 01/23/07 for investors to buy.
I have used this calculation on many stocks before and believe me it works. Error margin is about 10% or so.
So 1/3 of 1,231 is 410 million shares … that’s is 410 millions new shares introduced into the market since 12/20/06
581 (old o/s) + 410 (new shares into float) = 990 millions float max.
but it could be as little as 654 (990 – 336) BINGO!!!
That’s where the volume came from. So let’s run with that figure.
1) 1/3 to flip, 1/3 to buy, 1/3 is the newly shares put into the market (410 millions)
2) So the new 410 millions were probably sold in .0006 range.
3) If 4000 new shares are restricted then the increased in shares from 950 – 581 = 369 could be very much GONE into investors. And 1/3 of those 1231 were around .0003 or so, I think are very much are in hands of those who got shares at .0002 to .0003. That translates to we are at the bottom.
I don’t expect that much more of a volume without no price movement. If ASK is getting hit and volume comes (without naked shorting), price should move up.
How much price movement will it be? Who knows? It’s all depending on the momentum, how got shares, and how high whoever in power want to take it.
USXP went from .0003 to .045 in about 3 months.
QBID went from .0002 to .033 in about 4 months
IPRE went from .0004 to almost .005 in few days.
USSE went from .0003 to .33 in a matter of few weeks.
Anything is possible. I do think CHNW is about to go to .003 to .005 in very short time frame. We need a pr about those 4000 million shares telling us that there are restricted shares.
My numbers make sense to me that those volume (1.2 billions since 12/20/06) came from putting 410 million shares or the rest of the old A/S into float, nothing more nothing less.
Now those shares are scooped up at the very low price .0002 to .0003, now it’s time to move up. It’s a matter of 10X, 20X, 40X or 100X.
NOTE: should the share count was at 581 million and the company started putting the rest of the 950 millions into the float, total traded since 12/01 is 1387 millions. You just change 410 millions number I have up in here to 462 millions. That is only 52 millions different. There is no big different. Keep in mind that lots of volume in DEC came from TAX LOSS selling. So you might as well 1/5 of Dec volume instead of 1/3. Total Dec Volume is only 176 millions. 156 millions from 12/01 - 12/19; 20 millions from 12/20 - 12/29
AI
