Humanigen Inc (fka HGENQ)

[cowtown jay]

In coming up with an $18B revenue projection based on the company-guided price target per vial of $10K, I relied on Worldometer's report of a fairly consistent increase of 500k new Covid cases per day, and I assumed HGEN's impossibly low capture of just 1% of that market, representing 5,000 patients per day receiving lenz.

As expected, I was challenged because I based the estimate on new cases, not hospitalizations. I would have gladly used hospitalizations, if Worldometer had reported that metric. But still, Worldometer reported new deaths of 2 - 3% of those patients in the US and India. Is it THAT unlikely that we could capture 1% of the market with an EUA, when that estimate is actually LOWER than the number of deaths?

I was told that not all countries would pay $10K per vial. My post indicated that I expected just that challenge. Yet, we see that Abbvie raised over $19B in revenue with their product that is priced at $9,385, almost as much as lenz.

I previously stated that I thought we could see $100B in revenue. I still do (easily). The $18B was used just to illustrate an example, based on an impossibly low estimate of market share following an EUA.

For instance, the $18B estimate did not factor in government purchases for their national stockpiles. Previous governmental purchase orders for the Regeneron and Lilly mAbs were for potentially 1 million-plus doses of those products, according to an article by Fierce Pharma, which reported on the EUA awarded to GSK/Vir for their mAb, sotrovimab.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/gsk-vir-snag-fda-eua-for-new-covid-19-antibody-drug-but-how-will-they-sell-it

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-additional-monoclonal-antibody-treatment-covid-19

Speaking of Sotrovimab, two months ago the CDC released a report based on a review of 7,162 patients who tested positive for Covid 19 and that had underlying health conditions. They concluded, "Most individuals with diagnosed COVID-19 do not require hospitalization." In fact, only 9% of the patients, who did not have underlying health conditions, required hospitalization.

https://www.tfah.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/COVIDunderlyingconditions040320.pdf

But the Sotrovimab EUA was awarded because the drug achieved a reduction in hospitalizations...which two months earlier the CDC had already reported that most Covid patients don't require.

I was also challenged, justifiably, in talking about the $18B revenue projection, which required 1.8M patients, when the company states they are challenged to meet 100,000 vials, as recently as in their latest slide show produced very recently this month.

The company did, at least, add to the already mentioned capacity of some manufacturers, including Catalent, to provide bulk drug. The company just disclosed, "In the US, Humanigen’s goal is to be able to produce lenzilumab to treat 100,000 patients within the first 12 months of obtaining an EUA. And while estimates on supply outside the US have not been made, Humanigen has said Chime would be willing to commit at least 56,000 L of capacity to the program annually to support ongoing demand."

https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/facilities-capacity/chimes-in-humanigen-adds-chinese-cdmo-to-support-covid-mab/

Common sense tells you that the company does not need manufacturing capacity of well over 100k L of lenz, to produce 100k vials of Lenz, containing 10mL of product each.

I was glad to see that subtle statement about Chime's capacity and availability. For a management team to overstate their capabilities in order to entice buying, is, to me, equally as wrong as intentionally understating capacity, which (despite management's intention) could entice shareholders to sell in the price range analysts estimate, but which is severely below what the company knows our investment is worth.

I interpret management's declaration regarding our constraint on producing 100k vials, made in the May slide show, as an attempt to repudiate my thoughts on our capacity being much higher. But the Chime declaration just reinforces my thoughts, and I think we deserve clarity. I probably should say that "I" would like clarity, because I don't think I speak for very many shareholders.