Humanigen Inc (HGENQ)

[10nisman]

If 1% of those patients received lenz, that would be 5,000 people per day, or about 1.8M patients per year. If one vial of lenz is required to treat each patient, then, at $10k per vial, we are looking at over $18B in revenue, which would position us within striking distance of becoming Pharma's biggest blockbuster new drug.

1. You're using cases vs. hospitalizations.
2. Its going to take HGEN at least 6 months from today to get production to an annual run-rate of 100k doses. And you're assuming 1.8 million? That'll take 2-3 years and about $1 billion of investment.
3. No foreign country is going to pay $10k for Lenz. Maybe $2-3K.
4. HGEN doesn't have the infrastructure nor the distribution to provide/sell Lenz to every part of the world and it would take them years to do so.

That should expand our market well beyond capturing just 1% of the market, and it won't take much to edge Humira out of their distinction as being the biggest blockbuster new drug (with about $1B more in sales than illustrated in my simple example).

Good luck with that.