Friday, May 28, 2021 11:44:55 AM
Before reading through the below fundamental valuation for AVVH, please understand that it is based on speculative thoughts from some key facts and presumptions that could come out later to be different. If later any of the variables used to derive the valuation change, please use the Substitution Property accordingly to replace such variable to derive at an updated valuation.
Important too to note, this valuation is predicated upon all or some significant portion of Gold Quest Group coming into AVVH. Let’s go over some of the key facts and presumptions that will help us to derive this valuation consideration:
AVVH/Gold Quest Group (GQG) Key Facts & Presumptions
Presumption ** AVVH completes the acquisition of Gold Quest Group:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=163576227
Fact ** Gold Quest Group (GQG) lends over $500 Million Annually:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=163608153
Fact ** AVVH will trade within the Brokerage & Investment Banking Industry with a Current P/E Ratio of 21.14 and a Trailing P/E Ratio of 82.20:
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
https://www.goldquestgroup.com/about-us/
Presumption ** Maybe only 80% or 90% of GQG will come into AVVH.
Presumption ** Since GQG lends over $500M Annually, fair to expect 20% of that or over $100 Million in Revenues for what should come into AVVH.
Presumption ** Since much of what is done is automated, there is a 40% Net Profit Margin.
Presumption ** Preferred shares will be used to acquire GQG so OS remains the same.
Fact ** OS after 1 billion shares reduction will be in the area of 910,000,000 shares:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AVVH/security
Fact ** Formula used to derive Fundamental Valuation:
Revenues x Net Profit Margin = Net Income
Net Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS x P/E Ratio = Per Share Price Valuation
AVVH Valuation Consideration
$100,000,000 Revenues x .40 Net Profit Margin = $40,000,000 Net Income
$40,000,000 Net Income ÷ 910,000,000 OS = .0439 EPS
For those new for understanding what a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio is and key dynamics, it is referred to being the growth rate for a stock that exists within a particular Industry. Read the links below that hopefully will help one to see how it's used to assess the fundamental valuation of a stock:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57154170
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp
Some investors like to use the Current P/E Ratio or the Trailing P/E Ratio. When analysts talk about the P/E Ratio, they commonly refer to the Trailing P/E Ratio so I will consider the use of both:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/050115/what-difference-between-forward-pe-and-trailing-pe.asp
Now let's further derive the fundamental valuation of AVVH by multiply the EPS by the P/E Ratio for the Industry of which it would trade:
.0439 x 21.14 Current P/E Ratio = .92 per share
Or... from using the Trailing P/E Ratio...
.0439 x 82.20 Trailing P/E Ratio = $3.61 per share
Now when you take into consideration the $30.9 Million Tax NOL, this could add a much greater amount of additional valuation into the equation based on how it's determined to be applied:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=163978295
In summary, this means that if Gold Quest Group comes into AVVH and brings in the valuation that I believe as I had indicated above through logical deduction, AVVH should fundamentally be worth somewhere in the area of .92 per share to $3.61 per share or higher depending on how their $30.9 Million Tax NOL will be applied. Again, important to note, use the Substitution Property to substitute out any variable that later is known to be the actual value or variable.
v/r
Sterling
Exit Strategy & Etiquette Thoughts for a Stock
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128822531
I never give investing advice; only my beliefs for risks in a stock.
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