Liv, That's the Billion dollar question, isn't it? I've made a few guesses the more time I spend staring at these agreements. I'll say this: Anyone of us could guess correctly today, and the circumstances could change and the decision and details would change. I have only a vague idea, based on what little is known.
RAS isn't going to get less popular among surgeons. There are too many benefits that apply to patient health. And the potential to keep costs down/profits up. And the only approved RAS device for 4-quadrant surgery is considered a very outdated design. Low hanging fruit from which to capture quick market share by the SP device that gets to market next. IMO. I found it interesting that HUGO is supposed to be scalable, meaning the surgeon may use any number of arms for each specific procedure. Not sure how far along in development the operations software is to control/only use 2 or 3 arms, b/c HUGO has always been shown and described as a 4 arm device. But it's logical to think they have to be able to control 2 at a time b/c the surgeon only has 2 controllers.
We know TMDI has a great SP RAS robot. And my biggest assumption would be b/c the IP is so unique and there's so much of it to support the product, when it's certified and launched. (By whomever.) I think the ENOS IP is going to create fits for competitors, as they launch their robots. We know Titan IP research was one of the, if not THE first thing Mc did. Which was to do a deep dive into the IP at the same patent law offices that have worked for ISRG. Which is why J. Brar is a rockstar in my mind. And this point is further supported by the assumption that MDT did their due diligence regarding our IP before they inked the agreements. It's really the best situation a tech company could be in, having the largest med-device company on the planet agree about the validity your IP assets.
We know about the potential demand for sp surgery from several points of view. 1 - ISRG thought it important enough to develop an SP device. 2 - Colubris decided to create one, and so did Memic.
Further, we know that the "Wanna-be" 800 lb. gorilla (MDT) understands that to create the shortest timeline to market with a new RAS device and make leaps ahead of competitors MUST acquire outside technology. Their newly minted CEO's roots are buried in the art of acquisitions. So buy it, and own it - or you don't get to play. He gets it. But he can't be the only one that understands that it's far easier to buy tech, than to develop it in-house.
Every large medical device company is hunting for strategic acquisitions that will provide new revenue and growth for that revenue over the course of the next 10-20 years. We just happen to be in the middle of a very secret development agreement with arguably the biggest. It takes very unique product(s) that address new opportunities to generate large amounts of revenue annually. So even if MDT doesn't want to buy TMDI for ENOS, b/c HUGO is scalable... (I'm saying if it's true) then MDT may have to, so another large competitor doesn't use ENOS against HUGO. It may come down to the fact that spending $5B-$8B now is much less than losing all that potential revenue that ENOS will generate once it's in the market. AND I'm only speaking of the surgical revenue, not the growth revenue from future product development using TMDI ENOS IP. That's another entirely separate revenue stream.
Why else would MDT require a seat in the TMDI boardroom? For a development agreement? I call BS, again. That seat is to be aware far in advance of any discussions with another competitor. TMDI can't do anything until the loan is paid off anyway. It's a stall tactic that only benefits MDT. IMO. The loan is covered in language that makes it appear something that which it is not. Again, IMO.
My Answer: I think it's sometime between September and November. And only based on what ever the final development of milestone 4 may be. If it's truly new IP, from which both companies can benefit, then Titan Labs will have proven it can develop cutting edge RAS tech and MDT will want that horse in it's stable of horses.
This is the final piece of the puzzle and is directly connected to the true negotiated value of the BO. IMO. If they buy Titan, they'll want the biggest bang for their buck. They'll want ENOS, the IP and the in-house know how/creativity to make things out of thin air. And all of that will be very expensive, but affordable. That's the advantage Mc has, that many don't understand. MDT makes the right offer, with incentives or pays dearly for the next 20 - 30 years. Would not want to be in THAT boardroom when someone says "So-and-so bought Titan." Especially after Mr. Martha's public statements.
This could be the easiest acquisition MDT's ever done. It looks smart, has the very unique tech, great long-term prospects and affordable. I don't care what Martha says about how "they" grow their acquisitions. TMDI has the basic blueprints for real, long-term, sustainable revenue. Which is why other competitors will want TMDI too. So Martha hedged his bets with the loan and board seat. IMO.
Thanks for listening. Good luck to all. Regards,BK.
