Good post. I hope you stick around and continue to contribute.
I agree with much of what you wrote. A few comments ...
1.) "...cash burn was set up on assumptions pre-pandemic."
This was the only real exception I took with your post. Mgmt deceived us regarding their cash burn long after the pandemic was a known risk IMO. We were directly told as recently as Dec that the converts + "pull-forward" revs would be "more than sufficient" only to learn 4 mos later that all that money was already gone. And don't even get me started on the "pull-forward" rev spiel they laid on us during the Q3 call. Also, the infamous 5/26/20 rev guidance of $70-72M for 2020 was also given DURING the pandemic. 4 mos later they had $17M on the books. Shameful.
2.) "The bottleneck hasn't been lack of demand, it's been logistics for implementing during Covid."
What concerns me is that the "bottleneck" hasn't really changed. It's been presented as a "line of sight" to 70K assets for about a year now. Shouldn't the asset count backlog be growing while they are still restricted logistically if the demand is there? Similar to your comment on how the 5-yr target should now be a 4-yr (or less).
3.) "New assets are being brought in at around $140-150/asset. You can do the math on the marginal recurring rev vs new assets"
I think this is probably the most encouraging stat that I've been tracking and IMO probably the most underappreciated. I've calculated the last 3 Q's to be $66, $103 and $170 (using a weighted avg for marginal assets of .67x prev Qtr and .33x Current Qtr). With the overall avg MRR/asset still down around $32, this avg will continue to ramp higher and boost that "over-time" rev at a higher rate than the actual connected asset growth rate. I was concerned that perhaps the Q4 licensing revs had artificially boosted that $170 number in Q4, but according to IR that rev is now being recognized evenly throughout the year due to an acctg change beginning in 2020. Definitely a stat to keep a close eye on.
4.) Regarding the recent selling, where are you getting the 4M share count from? Is that the number of restricted shares that recently matured?
