I agree, losses will continue every quarter this year, at least. I’m expecting a cash burn rate around $10M for Q1. I think they will exit 2021 with maybe $40M cash after a year of very high opex and $10M capex.
Receivables will be fine. Herbal brands is still predominantly the revenue generator for at least 1H of 2021 and GNC was bought out and there are no longer inventory reserve issues. Why are you expecting a quarterly report delay? The company just announced earnings release and conference call for May 17th.
Yes the 8K regarding the restated financials was posted almost 2 weeks ago. It’s a non event.
My take on CLVR is it will not trade much below 8, which equates to an EV of 180M. With an original $130M invested capital in the company and $80M cash providing them about a 2 year buildup runway, I think shares available below 8 would be quickly snapped up assuming the stock market is not about to collapse.
I also do not expect the stock to trade above the 12 - 14 strong resistance range possibly for the rest of 2021 unless a major catalyst materializes (or the sector becomes a momentum trade again...admittedly unlikely without decriminalization). If CLVR continues to announce middle of the road pharma partnerships the market will yawn because the lead times are exceptionally long, upwards of 1.5 to 2 years before potential revenues materialize. I also don’t expect much from the cbd product they’re developing for their Herbal brands distribution.
There are frankly only two catalysts that change this range bound theory imo. US decriminalization with a path for CLVR to import/partner or a significant partnership announcement with retail cpg in one of the legal markets. Just because they make medicinal grade product doesn’t mean it can’t be sold downstream into any number of speedier to market non medicinal retail channels. Without a major catalyst the Clever Leaves engine is on idle. So, after starting off quite bullish (thanks to their very misleading investor presentation) I’ve seen the error of my ways and am neutral to mildly bullish near to medium term and far more bullish further out as CLVR becomes a real cog in the global supply chain. That’s my take for now...
