Nothing is ever a lock when it comes to cannabis and Congress, but it looks like The 2021 SAFE Banking Act (opens up banking, payment processing and investment for MJ/Hemp/CBD) is just about at a tipping point right now, so I’m adjusting odds for passage from 70% to 75%
If all Dems vote in support of it, only 9 Repubs are needed to be in favor of it to overcome any filibuster, and that’s assuming that Dems don’t attempt to pass it via reconciliation, which would only require 51 votes in favor, making SAFE Banking an absolute lock to pass the Senate
With the vast majority of bills, there are ordinarily Senators who don’t feel strongly enough to sign on as a cosponsor but do vote in favor of it when it hits the floor, so the likelihood that right now there are 9-15 Republicans in favor of it is pretty strong
What I’m looking for moving forward is how quickly Chuck’s MJ Legalization/Decriminalization Bill can gain Democratic cosponsors after it is introduced, and comparing that number to the SAFE Banking Act
If there is strong support amongst Dems in Senate for Chuck’s bill, then SAFE Banking + MJ Legalization/Decriminalization looks like a package deal, particularly if Chuck is looking to pass it via reconciliation (51 votes needed)
If Senate Dems aren’t lining up behind Chuck’s bill, then we could see Chuck pivot and decide to pass The 2021 SAFE Banking Act without MJ Legalization/Decriminalization, and make a run at passing MJ Legalization/Decriminalization in 2022 when the MJ industry will have significantly more financial momentum due to the passage of SAFE Banking
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