Monday, May 10, 2021 6:50:02 PM
Ocugen’s Valuation Deserves a Haircut, Says Analyst
Marty Shtrubel
May 10, 2021, 03:42 PM
Ocugen (OCGN) has been a 2021 success story, as the eye disease specialist has decided to moonlight in the lucrative world of coronavirus stocks.
The company has inked a deal with Bharat Biotech to bring the India-based company’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin to the U.S. It’s a gamble that has paid off handsomely so far, particularly in the stock market’s eyes; even after pulling back since the beginning of May, the stock’s year-to-date performance shows gains in the 455% ballpark.
Does the rally have more legs? According to Chardan analyst Keay Nakae, the stock might have used up all the fuel in the tank already.
Nakae’s skeptical analysis follows on from Ocugen’s recent quarterly report. Being a pre-revenue company, the bottom-and top-line results are of less importance. More pertinently, investors wanted to get an update regarding Covaxin’s progress, and right now, the company’s target of getting the FDA to issue an EUA for Covaxin has stalled (Covaxin has already been granted an EUA in India).
Ocugen has commenced discussions with the regulatory body, and a Master File containing vital information and data to date (including preclinical studies, CMC, and clinical studies) has already been submitted. However, there has been a delay in obtaining additional data from Bharat that is required to complete the EUA submission, due to the current surge in COVID-19 cases in India.
And according to Nakae, time is running out.
“The Covid-19 vaccine landscape in the U.S. remains fast changing, moving in a direction that we believe is reducing the potential market advantages that COVAXIN may offer,” the 5-star analyst said. “Compared to just a month ago, the U.S. is no longer supply-constrained.”
Moreover, in their respective development efforts to combat emerging variants and show their vaccines are suitable to younger patients, both Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech are making progress.
These are issues which need to be considered when mulling an investment in OCGN, says Nakae, who concludes, “We believe that investors should weigh these developments against the attractive features of COVAXIN’s inactivated intact virion design…”
Ultimately, Nakae’s advice is to say on the sidelines. The analyst reiterates a Neutral (i.e. Hold) rating for the shares, while reducing the price target from $13 to $8. The reduced figure implies ~23% downside from current levels
Successful Trading is the art of minimizing long term risk and maximizing capital allocation.
Recent OCGN News
- Ocugen Announces Data and Safety Monitoring Board Approves Enrollment in High Dose Cohort 3 in GARDian Study for Stargardt Disease • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/21/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Ocugen, Inc. Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase 3 liMeliGhT Clinical Trial for OCU400—First Gene Therapy in Phase 3 with a Broad Retinitis Pigmentosa Indication • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/20/2024 10:30:31 AM
- Form DEFA14A - Additional definitive proxy soliciting materials and Rule 14(a)(12) material • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/18/2024 08:29:04 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/06/2024 08:31:02 PM
- Data and Safety Monitoring Board Approves Simultaneous Enrollment in Cohort 3 and Phase 2 Initiation in OCU410 ArMaDa study for Geographic Atrophy • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/31/2024 12:36:49 PM
- Ocugen to Present at BIO International Convention 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/29/2024 11:15:00 AM
- Form DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/28/2024 08:05:59 PM
- Ocugen Set to Join Russell 3000® Index Effective June 28, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/28/2024 11:02:39 AM
- Ocugen Announces CSO to Present on Modifier Gene Therapy at International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/20/2024 11:00:52 AM
- Form PRE 14A - Other preliminary proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/17/2024 08:30:54 PM
- Ocugen Announces Dosing Completion of Subjects with Stargardt Disease in Cohort 2 of Phase 1/2 GARDian Clinical Trial of OCU410ST—A Modifier Gene Therapy • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/15/2024 10:30:00 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/14/2024 07:54:50 PM
- Ocugen Provides Business Update with First Quarter 2024 Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/14/2024 12:00:25 PM
- US Futures Remain Steady Amid Wall Street Caution Ahead of April PPI Report • IH Market News • 05/14/2024 11:18:01 AM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/14/2024 10:32:02 AM
- Form 8-A12G - Registration of securities [Section 12(g)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/10/2024 08:15:44 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/10/2024 08:14:11 PM
- Ocugen Announces Distribution of Series C Preferred Stock to Holders of its Common Stock • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/10/2024 08:05:06 PM
- Ocugen to Present at May 2024 Investor Conferences • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/10/2024 11:45:07 AM
- Ocugen to Host Conference Call on Tuesday, May 14 at 8:30 A.M. ET to Discuss Business Updates and First Quarter 2024 Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/03/2024 11:30:05 AM
- Ocugen Announces CSO to Present on Modifier Gene Therapy at Retina World Congress • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/02/2024 11:15:46 AM
- Ocugen Announces OCU400—Modifier Gene Therapy—Phase 1/2 Data Presentation at Retinal Cell and Gene Therapy Innovation Summit 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/29/2024 10:45:00 AM
- UPDATE -- Ocugen to Present on Modifier Gene Therapy Platform at Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology 2024 Annual Meeting • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/26/2024 01:05:24 PM
- Ocugen to Present on Modifier Gene Therapy Platform at Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology 2024 Annual Meeting • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/26/2024 10:30:40 AM
- Ocugen Announces Dosing Completion of Subjects with Geographic Atrophy in Cohort 2 of Phase 1/2 ArMaDa Clinical Trial of OCU410—A Modifier Gene Therapy • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/19/2024 11:13:05 AM
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