K3, Re:GSM1x and Unicom. The sales should begin shortly (before the end of 2003) if the recent articles since the ITU conference are to be believed. TT was quoted as saying “before Christmas”. Kyocera and Samsung have both announced and hints indicate that both LG and Motorola will also be making GSM1x handsets.
Dr. IJ stated earlier this year that GSM1x handsets could be the “sleeper” in 2004. I don’t believe any of the analysts have as yet even indicated to the investment public the potential GSM1x sales, much less included such in their 2004 handset / EPS forecasts.
I posted this earlier regarding potential GSM1x handset sales form Unicom. However, I believe I understated the Unicom GSM sub base by 10 Million by not using the parents subs.
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Unicom GSM1x Chinanex article- “Where will 70 M Users go?”
The article assumes the new GSM1x handsets will be of the high-end variety and questions how many of the Unicom current and future GSM subscribers will buy a GSM1x handset. The immediate addressable GSM1x market is (1) the replacement market for Unicom’s current (Aug ’03) 61M GSM subs, and (2) their new subs being added at a rate of approx 800K per month or about 10M per year.
Handset replacement rates in Asia for 2003 are estimated to be 36% of the prior year subs per a Qualcomm Spring meeting chart. Hence, the 2004 addressable replacement market is estimated at 23.4M units (.36 x 65M). The addressable market for new subs is estimated at 9.6M units, when combined with the addressable replacement market yields a total addressable market of 33M handsets. The following is potential Unicom GSM1x handset sales at various capture rates.
Unicom Potential GSM1x Handset Sales-
...Addressable Market.....33M
.....10%......3.3M
.....20%......6.6M
.....25%......8.3M
.....30%......9.9M
It should be noted that in various presentations Qualcomm management has stated that they will aggressively pursue the GSM market and price their MSMs so that the handset vendors can offer competitively priced handsets. The initial market will probably be the high and high middle tiers, however Qualcomm has stated they also plan to segment the mid-tier market also. Further, operators (10) in addition to Unicom have expressed interest in GSM1x according to this article.
AI
