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Monday, May 10, 2021 8:32:49 AM
By: Zacks Investment Research | May 10, 2021
Okta Inc (OKTA) beat earnings back at the start of March and the stock has moved all over the place. The question becomes if this stock has bottomed out here in the low $240 range or is it primed for a rebound? Let’s take a deeper look in this Bear of the Day article.
Description
Okta, Inc. provides identity management platform for enterprises, small and medium-sized businesses, universities, non-profits, and government agencies in the United States and internationally. Okta, Inc. sells its products directly to customers through sales force, as well as through channel partners. The company was formerly known as Saasure, Inc. Okta, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Earnings History
The first thing I do when I look at stock is look to see if the company is beating the number. This tells me right away where the market’s expectations have been for the company and how management has been able to communicate to the market. A stock that consistently beats is one that has management communicating expectations to Wall Street that can be achieved. That is what you want to see.
In the case of OKTA, I see four straight beats of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. So you might wonder, why is this stock the Bear of the Day?
Well the Zacks Rank does care about the earnings history, but it is much more heavily influenced by the movement of earnings estimates.
Earnings Estimates
The Zacks Rank tells us which stocks are seeing earnings estimates move higher or in this case lower. For OKTA, I see estimates moving lower across the board.
This quarter has moved from a loss of 8 cents to a loss of 20 cents.
Next quarter has seen a similar decrease from -10 cents to -13 cents.
The Zacks Rank is more heavily influenced by the move in the annual numbers, and the movement is also negative for those numbers.
I see 2021 moving from a loss of $0.45 to -$0.50 over the last 60 days.
The 2022 number has moved from a loss of $0.05 to -$0.10 over the same time horizon.
Negative movement in earnings estimates like that are the reason that this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Valuation
I am partial to growth, so when I see this stock posting 40% topline growth in the more recent quarter I want think that most of the bad news is baked into the stock. The analysts that cover OKTA are suggesting there will be 31% topline growth this year and 29% next year, so fairly consistent growth on top. The forward earnings multiple is NA as the company is going to be running at a loss for the next year and a half or so. The price to book at 44x is absurdly high… but this is an asset slim business. Price to sales is also very high at 37x.
Chart
Okta, Inc. Price and Consensus
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Recent OKTA News
- Okta to Announce First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results on May 29, 2024 • Business Wire • 05/01/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Canada’s Identity Theft Worries Mount with AI Progression, Okta Survey Finds • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/26/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Okta Ventures Unveils "The Identity 25" to Honor Pioneers Shaping the Future of Digital Identity • Business Wire • 03/19/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Okta Announces Availability of Fine Grained Authorization for Enhanced Security and Efficiency • Business Wire • 03/05/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/01/2024 09:02:15 PM
- Okta to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences • Business Wire • 02/29/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Snowflake Stock Plummets 20.3% After CEO Transition; C3.ai, Okta, and Duolingo Surge Post-Strong Quarterly Reports, and More • IH Market News • 02/29/2024 11:09:45 AM
- Okta Strengthens Go to Market Leadership with Executive Appointments • Business Wire • 02/28/2024 09:05:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/28/2024 09:02:31 PM
- Okta Announces Fourth Quarter And Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results • Business Wire • 02/28/2024 09:01:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/21/2024 10:17:27 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/16/2024 09:01:16 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 09:47:19 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 09:46:15 PM
- Form 3 - Initial statement of beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/07/2024 10:02:16 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/01/2024 01:39:00 PM
- Okta to Announce Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results on February 28, 2024 • Business Wire • 02/01/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/18/2024 11:37:34 AM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/16/2024 09:14:58 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/26/2023 09:55:36 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/19/2023 10:13:10 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/19/2023 10:11:37 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/19/2023 10:09:45 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/19/2023 10:07:34 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/19/2023 10:05:59 PM
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